Deportivo Alavés vs RCD Mallorca: match statistics

I back a home win (1). Deportivo Alavés averages 1.27 goals scored and xG 1.47 per home match, while RCD Mallorca scores only 0.87 goals and has xG 1.07 on the road, indicating a clear home edge in chance creation. Alavés averages 13.07 shots (4.2 on target) per home game versus Mallorca’s 9.13 shots (3.53 on target), and the share of matches without scoring is 20% for Alavés vs. 40% for the visitors. Defensively the visitors perform poorly away — conceding 1.93 goals per match, while Alavés concedes 1.20 at home; Mallorca also records only 7% clean sheets away and a 73% loss rate on the road. As a balancing factor, Mallorca have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 2.0 points per game in that run compared to Alavés’ 1.2, therefore I estimate a 62% probability of a home win, 20% for a draw and 18% for an away victory.

The BTTS - Yes scenario is more likely given both teams' season metrics: Alavés has 71% of matches with both teams scoring, Mallorca 60%, against a league average of 56%. Signals strengthen over the last 5 matches — Alavés has 100% BTTS in the last 5, Mallorca 80%; in those five games Alavés averages 2.2 goals scored and concedes 2.2, while Mallorca scores 1.8 and concedes 1.0. xG and shot data indicate both sides create chances: xG 1.40 (Alavés) vs 1.07 (Mallorca), with xG against 1.54 and 1.82 respectively; Alavés records 4.59 shots on target vs 3.53 for Mallorca and conversion 13% vs 9%. Seasonal goal figures confirm open games — Alavés 36 goals scored and 48 conceded, Mallorca 40 scored and 49 conceded, translating to average goals conceded of approx. 1.18 and 1.93 per game. Considering the 100%/80% in the last 5, season-long 71%/60% BTTS and the edge in xG/shots, I assess BTTS - Yes at 80% and BTTS - No at 20%.

The xG-based model yields expected goals of 1.61 for Deportivo Alavés (home xG 1.40 vs Mallorca defense 1.82) and 1.31 for RCD Mallorca (away xG 1.07 vs Alavés defense 1.54), totaling 2.92 goals. In a classical Poisson model with λ=2.92 the probability of exceeding 1.5 goals (≥2 goals) is about 79%, exceeding 2.5 (≥3) about 56%, and 3.5 (≥4) about 33%. Season-to-date figures confirm a higher tempo: Alavés has Over1.5 in 82% of matches, Mallorca in 87%, while Over2.5 occurs for the home side in 59% and for the away side in 73%; additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams recorded Over2.5 in 80% of cases, and Alavés has scored 11 and conceded 11 in their last 5 matches (4.4 goals per game). Considering xG, the Poisson model and seasonal trends, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (88%) — Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (68%), whereas Over 3.5 remains less likely (34%).

Alavés have the home advantage: they win 47% of matches, score an average of 1.59 goals per game and average 1.71 points per match, while Mallorca win only 7% away, score 0.87 goals on average and average 0.4 points per match. At half-time the home side led in 4 matches (24%), it was level in 6 (35%) and they were behind in 7 (41%), so a draw at the break is a common scenario. After the break Alavés significantly accelerate: they score 1.06 goals on average and concede 0.41, collecting 32 points in second halves (1.88 per game), whereas Mallorca after the break have 0.47 goals, concede 1.0 and have collected only 9 points (0.6 per game). Additionally the home xG is 1.4 versus 1.07 for the visitors, shots on target average 4.59 vs 3.53 and conversion 13% vs 9%, which confirms Alavés create and convert more chances after the break; therefore the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).