Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia CF: match statistics

Deportivo Alavés remain unbeaten after four league matches, with a record of 3 wins and 1 draw, scoring 10 goals, while Valencia have recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats. The hosts are particularly strong at home: they have won all three matches, averaging 3 goals scored and conceding just 0.67 goals per game, while keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their appearances. Valencia lost their only away match so far, conceding an average of 3 goals per game on the road and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Although the visitors have a slightly higher average away xG than Alavés’ home figure—1.47 versus 1.48—their conversion rate is just 8%, compared with 23% for the hosts. Recent form further supports Alavés, who have scored 11 goals and collected 11 points in their last five matches, while Valencia have lost four times and conceded 11 goals over the same period.

The strongest signal for BTTS does not stem from Valencia’s attacking problems: they have averaged just 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches and failed to score in 3 of those 5 games. Alavés are in very strong defensive form, conceding only 0.8 goals per match during this period, while opponents have recorded an average xG of 1.22. The hosts have recently scored 2.2 goals per game and have an xG of 1.42, whereas Valencia have conceded an average of 2.2 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 1.53. Therefore, the most realistic scenario is an Alavés victory with goals and a clean sheet expected. Although Valencia have a season attacking xG of 1.47 and average 4 shots on target per match, their current finishing efficiency has clearly declined, reducing the likelihood of an away goal. BTTS - Yes is also not more likely given that 60% of Alavés’ last five matches and only 40% of Valencia’s last five games produced both teams scoring.

Alavés are in clearly better offensive form: they have averaged 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Valencia conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game over the same period. The hosts’ potential is also confirmed by the superior quality of their chances, with their average xG from the last five appearances standing at 1.42, while Valencia allow opponents 1.53 xG. The visitors themselves scored only 0.4 goals per game in their last five league fixtures, but Alavés conceded 0.8 goals in those matches, so a single Valencia goal remains a realistic scenario. Valencia’s matches in the seasonal data went Over both 1.5 and 2.5 goals in 100% of cases, while 60% of their last five games featured at least three goals. The strongest edge is on Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.70 goals combines Alavés’ attacking form with Valencia’s defensive weaknesses, while carrying less risk than the 2.5 line.

Deportivo Alavés are in significantly better current form: across their last five matches, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, remaining unbeaten and winning 60% of their games. Over the same period, Valencia have not won a single match, losing 80% of their games, scoring just 0.4 goals per match and allowing opponents to score 2.2. Alavés led at the break in three of their last five appearances and did not trail in any of them, while Valencia were behind at half-time in 40% of their matches and conceded an average of 0.8 goals in the first half. After the break, the hosts have recently averaged 1.4 goals, whereas the visitors have failed to score and have conceded 1.4 goals. The most likely outcome is therefore an Alavés lead at half-time and a maintained advantage through to the final whistle: HT/FT 1/1.