Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca: match statistics

I back the home win because Deportivo Garcilaso shows a better recent run and greater point stability: the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 1.8 points per match in that period, while UTC Cajamarca have not won any of their last 5 and average 0.4 points per match. In attack the hosts score 1.57 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.35 and a conversion rate of 12%, whereas the visitors average 1.43 goals away with xG 1.42 and 11% conversion, indicating slightly higher offensive efficiency for the hosts (12% vs 11%) and that the hosts have not recorded a goalless home match (FTS 0% vs 29% for the visitors). Defensively the gap is even clearer: the hosts concede 1.14 goals per home match, while UTC concede 2.00 goals away; additionally the hosts have 29% clean sheets at home versus 0% for the visitors. Although the visitors register more shots on target (5.14 vs 4.29) and more total shots (13.14 vs 12.71), this advantage does not translate into points — UTC suffer 57% defeats away and have a -4 goal difference on the road, while the hosts have +3 in home matches. Therefore I assess the hosts’ chances as dominant and stake on their victory.

Both teams show high BTTS rates: Deportivo Garcilaso 57% this season and 60% in the last 5 matches, and UTC Cajamarca 71% this season and 80% in the last 5, which strongly favors a Goal/Goal outcome. UTC concedes on average 2.0 goals this season and 2.2 in the last 5 matches, while Garcilaso scores 1.29 goals this season and 1.2 in the last 5, so the visitors are clearly defensively vulnerable. xG metrics indicate both teams create around 1.3–1.4 xG per match (Garcilaso 1.32 vs UTC 1.42) and shots on target 4.29 vs 5.14 confirm chance generation; both teams’ shooting conversion is roughly 11%, supporting eventual goals. Additionally UTC has no clean sheets (0% clean sheets) and has conceded 22 goals this season versus 17 conceded by Garcilaso, increasing the likelihood of the visitors conceding. Considering these specific numbers and the league BTTS average of 59% and goals average of 2.72 per match, I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability 80% vs 20%.

I assess a very high probability of Over 1.5 goals because Deportivo Garcilaso have 71% of home matches with over 1.5 goals and UTC Cajamarca have 100% of away games over 1.5. I estimate expected xG at 1.34 for the home side and 1.30 for the visitors (total 2.64), with attacking xG of 1.32 (Garcilaso) and 1.42 (UTC), while both defenses concede on average 1.17 and 1.35 xG respectively, indicating active chance creation. Additionally, BTTS rates are 57% for Garcilaso and 71% for UTC, and average shots on target 4.29 vs 5.14 and average shots 11.43 vs 13.14 confirm both teams consistently generate scoring opportunities. The 2.5 line is also realistic — season over 2.5 is 43% (home) and 71% (away), and in the last 5 matches the over 2.5 rate was 60% for the hosts and 80% for the visitors — however the total xG of 2.64 does not provide a large cushion above 2.5. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (estimated probability Over 1.5 = 88%), and my estimates for markets are Over 2.5 = 62% and Over 3.5 = 28%.

Deportivo Garcilaso led at half-time in 3 of 7 matches (43%), while UTC never led at the break (0%), which clearly favors the home side in the first half. The hosts average 0.57 goals by half-time and concede 0.29, and they have 12 points at the break versus the visitors' 4 points (on average 1.71 points at half-time vs 0.57), so their efficiency before the break is higher. UTC, however, is stronger after the break — they average 1.14 goals in the second half and win the second half in 56% of matches versus 28% for the hosts, giving them a real chance of a turnaround. Nevertheless, the last 5 matches favor Garcilaso (form 'llwww', 3 wins, 60% in the last 5), while UTC has not won in their last 5 (0%), and xG is similar (1.32 vs 1.42), so the hosts' half-time advantage should be sufficient to maintain the lead and win. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is HT/FT 1/1 (lead at the break and home win).