Deportivo La Coruña vs Sevilla FC: match statistics

Deportivo remain unbeaten at home, winning 1 of their 2 matches and drawing the other, while averaging 2 goals per game. The hosts also create more chances, registering 9.5 shots per match compared with Sevilla’s 6.5, and their average xG stands at 1.12 versus just 0.89 for the visitors. Sevilla sit higher in the table and have better form over their last five matches, averaging 2 points compared with Deportivo’s 1.6. However, away from home, they allow opponents to generate an xG as high as 1.84. Both teams average 2 goals per match at home and away respectively, and neither has kept a clean sheet, suggesting an open, goal-filled encounter. Deportivo hold a slight edge thanks to home advantage and the superior quality of chances created, although Sevilla’s high conversion rate of 31% keeps the risk of a draw or an upset significant.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: BTTS has occurred in 67% of Deportivo’s matches and in all of Sevilla’s matches so far, compared with a league average of 52%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games, while each averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per match. At home, Deportivo produces an average of 1.68 xG and registers 15.33 shots, while Sevilla, despite a low seasonal xG of 0.89, scores an average of 2.0 goals per match. The visitors have yet to keep a single clean sheet, and their opponents create an average of 1.84 xG against them, strongly supporting the home team to score. The risk to this pick comes from Deportivo’s very strong defensive quality, measured at 0.79 xG conceded per match; however, Sevilla’s current finishing form and both teams’ recent run support a BTTS - Yes scenario. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals, as both teams have scored in every match so far this season, while Sevilla have yet to keep a clean sheet. Deportivo create chances worth an average of 1.68 xG at home, whereas Sevilla allow opponents 1.84 xG away from home, which clearly increases the hosts’ attacking potential. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with both teams scoring in 80% of their respective games. Over 1.5 goals occurred in 67% of Deportivo’s matches and in all of Sevilla’s games, making Over 1.5 the stronger option compared with the riskier 2.5 line.

A draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo victory is the most likely outcome, as the home side have a clear advantage in the quality of chances created: their average xG is 1.68 compared with Sevilla’s 0.89. Deportivo average 15.33 shots per match, while Sevilla manage only 6.5, and the visitors’ defense allows opponents an xG of 1.84. A cautious start is supported by the fact that Sevilla have scored just 0.2 goals on average before half-time in their last five matches and failed to score in the first half in 80% of them. After the break, the hosts have been particularly effective in the season data: they have won the second half in 100% of matches, scored an average of 1.33 goals during it, and conceded none. Sevilla remain dangerous, averaging 2.0 goals per match and winning 60% of their last five fixtures, but Deportivo’s superiority in chance creation and their second-half performance point towards the X/1 scenario.