Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos: match statistics

Both teams sit 3rd in their respective standings, and their season records are very similar: Deportivo La Guaira have 9 wins, 10 draws and just 1 defeat, while Metropolitanos have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats. The hosts are exceptionally solid defensively at home, conceding an average of 0.44 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of matches, but they also score just 0.78 goals per game there and have failed to score in 44% of their home fixtures. Away from home, Metropolitanos score an average of 0.89 goals, have a higher shot-conversion rate—8% compared to 6%—and fail to score in only 22% of matches, although their xG stands at 1.24 versus 1.37 for La Guaira. The teams’ last five matches do not suggest a clear advantage: the hosts have won twice and lost three times, while the visitors have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Given La Guaira’s 56% home draw rate, the low average of 1.22 goals in their matches and the cautious profile of both defences, a draw is the most likely outcome, probably in a low-scoring game.

Seasonal BTTS rates are clearly below the league average of 54%: Deportivo La Guaira record 45%, while Metropolitanos are at just 33%. Metropolitanos score an average of only 0.89 goals away from home, while the hosts keep a clean sheet in 45% of matches, increasing the risk of the visitors failing to score. Additionally, the away side have recorded 56% of matches without conceding and concede only 0.67 goals per game, meaning La Guaira may also struggle to find the net. The last five matches do show BTTS in 60% of cases for both teams, but this stems from defensive deterioration, with the teams conceding an average of 2.0 and 1.6 goals respectively. Low seasonal scoring profiles—particularly Metropolitanos’ 11% of matches featuring over 2.5 goals—slightly more strongly support the scenario in which at least one side fails to score, making BTTS - No the preferred option.

The strongest signal points to the Under 3.5 goals line: this outcome occurred in 73% of Deportivo La Guaira’s matches and as many as 89% of Metropolitanos’ games. Metropolitanos concede just 0.67 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 56% of their appearances, limiting the hosts’ potential despite La Guaira averaging 1.45 goals at home. Total expected goals of 2.45 are based on both teams’ xG figures: the hosts create an average of 1.12 xG and the visitors 1.24 xG, while conceding 1.39 and 1.53 xG, respectively. The last five matches were slightly more open, averaging 3.4 goals in the hosts’ games and 2.6 in the visitors’ matches, but the seasonal percentages of games finishing Over 3.5 goals remain low, at 27% and 11%, respectively. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a match with 2-3 goals, giving Under 3.5 a clear edge.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: Deportivo La Guaira were level at the break in 55% of their matches, while Metropolitanos did so in as many as 67%. Both teams are highly cautious before the interval, averaging 0.55 and 0.33 goals scored, respectively, while conceding just 0.36 and 0.22. After the break, the home side improves markedly, averaging 0.91 goals and 1.73 points per match in second halves, compared with 0.56 goals and 1.44 points for Metropolitanos. La Guaira also have the better overall points return, 1.91 versus 1.67, while the visitors score only 0.89 goals per away match. The most likely scenario is therefore a draw at half-time followed by a narrow home win, although Metropolitanos keeping a clean sheet in 56% of their matches also increases the likelihood of a draw at full-time.