Deportivo La Guaira vs Zamora: match statistics

Deportivo La Guaira defend very well at home, conceding an average of just 0.44 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their games, but they also score only 0.78 goals there. The hosts have a higher average home xG than Zamora’s away xG (1.37 vs. 1.20), yet they fail to score in as many as 44% of their home matches. Zamora come into this fixture on a five-match unbeaten run, with 2 wins and 3 draws, having conceded just 4 goals during that period. The visitors’ away attacking output is respectable, as they score an average of once per match and register 4 shots on target, but they have lost 43% of their league matches away from home. With La Guaira drawing 56% of their home games and both teams adopting a cautious approach, a share of the points is the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive: Deportivo La Guaira saw both teams score in 71% of their matches, while Zamora recorded this outcome in as many as 80% of their last five games. However, the hosts are defensively vulnerable, conceding 10 goals in their last five appearances—an average of 2.0 per match—while allowing opponents 1.32 xG. Zamora are in good offensive form, scoring 10 goals in their last five matches and producing an average of 1.83 xG, which strengthens their chances of finding the net. La Guaira take more shots than their opponents, 14.57 versus 11.29 per match, while Zamora keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches, meaning the BTTS - Yes pick is not without risk. Despite the visitors' more solid defense, La Guaira's recurring problems with conceding and Zamora's current attacking efficiency slightly favor the BTTS scenario.

The season profile clearly supports a limited number of goals: both teams went Over 2.5 goals in only 43% of matches, while Zamora had no games finishing Over 3.5 goals. La Guaira average 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, whereas Zamora average 1.00 goal both scored and conceded per match. The goal signal is slightly stronger across the last five appearances, with the hosts conceding 2.0 goals per game and Zamora scoring 2.0; however, their average xG figures of 1.27 and 1.83 respectively do not clearly point to a four-goal game. Zamora’s defense kept a clean sheet in 43% of matches and conceded only 4 goals in their last five games, limiting the hosts’ potential. The strongest option is Under 3.5, as the season percentages of matches finishing below this line stand at 86% for La Guaira and 100% for Zamora.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Zamora were level at the break in 57% of their matches, compared with 43% for Deportivo La Guaira. The visitors are in clearly better recent form: they have avoided defeat in their last five matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while the hosts have lost 3 of their last 5 games and allowed opponents to score 2.0 goals per match. After the interval, Zamora have averaged 1.0 goal scored and conceded just 0.2 in their last five appearances, whereas La Guaira have scored only 0.4 goals and conceded 1.0. Season-long xG figures also slightly favor the visitors defensively, with Zamora allowing opponents 1.22 xG compared with the hosts’ 1.41 xG. Therefore, after a cautious and evenly matched first half, the most likely scenario is a turnaround in which Zamora settle the match in their favor after the break.