Deportivo Madryn vs Ciudad de Bolívar: match statistics

Deportivo Madryn come into the match in clearly better form: they have collected 10 points from their last five games and scored 9 goals, while Ciudad de Bolívar have managed just 4 points and only 2 goals. At home, the hosts average 1.69 goals per match, compared with the visitors’ 0.77 goals away from home, and they also register more shots: 11.23 versus 7.85. Madryn’s advantage is also evident in their control of the game and efficiency: they enjoy 58% possession and convert 15% of their shots, whereas Bolívar have 40% possession and a 10% conversion rate. The visitors boast a solid away defense, conceding an average of just 0.62 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 62% of matches, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. Nevertheless, the hosts create slightly better chances, with an average xG of 1.31 compared with Bolívar’s away xG against of 1.68, making a narrow home win the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by Ciudad de Bolívar’s very low seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored, standing at just 23%, compared with 50% for Deportivo Madryn. The visitors score an average of only 0.77 goals per match and have netted just 2 goals in their last 5 games, averaging 0.4 per match. Deportivo Madryn have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their matches, while Ciudad de Bolívar have failed to score in 38% of their outings, and the visitors come into this fixture after a run in which the hosts conceded just 3 goals across 5 matches. Additionally, both teams recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last five games, while the league average for this market is just 40%. The hosts may be able to exploit the visitors’ weaker recent defensive form, with Deportivo Madryn conceding 1.2 goals per match, but the most likely scenario remains one in which at least one team fails to score.

The profile of both teams clearly points towards a low-scoring game: under 3.5 goals was recorded in 86% of Deportivo Madryn’s matches and as many as 92% of Ciudad de Bolívar’s fixtures. The visitors score just 0.77 goals per game this season and also keep a clean sheet in 62% of their appearances, limiting the hosts’ potential despite their strong run of form. Deportivo Madryn have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches, but Ciudad de Bolívar have managed just 2 goals over the same period, with none of their last five matches going over 2.5 goals. The league average is only 1.94 goals, while the projected total of 1.73 goals for this match remains below that level. The strongest option is Under 3.5, as at least 4 goals would be required for this pick to lose, while both teams very rarely feature in such high-scoring games.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Madryn victory: the hosts were level at the break in 71% of their matches, compared with 62% for Ciudad de Bolívar. The first halves of both teams are exceptionally cagey, with Madryn averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded, while Bolívar scores just 0.38 and concedes 0.15. After the break, the form advantage clearly shifts to the hosts: in their last five matches, they averaged 1.4 goals in the second half while conceding just 0.2, whereas Bolívar scored only 0.2 and conceded 0.8 during that period. Deportivo won 3 of their last 5 matches and collected an average of 2.0 points per game in them, while the visitors lost 3 of 5 and managed just 0.8 points per game. Although Bolívar have a better points record over the season as a whole, their recent scoring rate is just 0.4 goals per match compared with Deportivo’s 1.8, which further supports the X/1 outcome.