Deportivo Madryn vs Godoy Cruz: match statistics

Deportivo Madryn remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws with a 7:4 goal difference, while Godoy Cruz have won 4 of their last 5 games. However, the key factor is the visitors’ clearly weaker away performance: they score an average of just 0.64 goals, lose 55% of their matches and fail to find the net in 55% of away appearances. At home, the hosts average 1.45 goals, enjoy 59% possession and register 3.27 shots on target per match, compared with 2.09 for Godoy Cruz away from home. Madryn’s defense also looks more solid, conceding 0.91 goals per home match, while despite their recent positive away trend, the visitors have a -5 goal difference away from home this season. The hosts’ low xG of 1.29 and the visitors’ 1.22 suggest a closely contested, rather low-scoring game, but home advantage and Madryn’s greater consistency point towards a narrow home win.

A scenario in which one of the teams fails to score is more likely, primarily due to Godoy Cruz’s poor finishing throughout the season: the visitors average just 0.64 goals per match and failed to score in 55% of their games. Deportivo Madryn concede only 0.77 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 38% of their appearances, which significantly limits the visitors’ chances of scoring. Godoy Cruz average 2.09 shots on target and convert just 6% of their attempts, while the hosts create considerably more, averaging 4.85 shots on target per match. The visitors’ last five matches look better, with BTTS - Yes landing in 80% of games and an average of 1.8 goals scored, but their season BTTS rate of 36% and the league average of 40% still provide stronger support for BTTS - No. The most realistic outcome is a Deportivo Madryn win to nil or a match in which at least one side fails to find the back of the net.

Deportivo Madryn score an average of 1.54 goals at home, while Godoy Cruz score only 0.64 away from home, limiting the visitors’ baseline scoring potential. The hosts concede an average of 0.77 goals per match, and the visitors scored at least once in only 45% of their away fixtures. Although Godoy Cruz’s last five matches produced an average of 2.8 total goals, the season-long profile of both teams remains clearly more cautious: under 3.5 goals landed in 85% of Madryn’s matches and 82% of Godoy Cruz’s away fixtures. Neither team has recorded a match with at least five goals this season, while their average xG points to a result closer to 2.22 goals than to an open, high-scoring game. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as a scenario featuring four or more goals would require a clear deviation from both teams’ seasonal trends.

Godoy Cruz arrive in significantly better current form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches while averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. During this run, the visitors led at the break in 80% of their matches, scored an average of 1.4 goals before half-time, and were never trailing after the first half. Deportivo Madryn have failed to score before half-time in their last five appearances, drawing at the break in 80% of those matches, despite leading after 45 minutes in 54% of their home games over the course of the season. The hosts’ advantage is further weakened by their opponent’s current efficiency, while Godoy Cruz had won 4 consecutive matches before their most recent defeat. The scenario of the visitors leading at half-time and securing a full-time victory is therefore the most likely, although Godoy Cruz’s weaker seasonal away record limits confidence in this selection.