Deportivo Madryn vs Los Andes: match statistics

Los Andes are the favorites for this match based on form and away results: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins and 2 draws with an average of 2.2 points per game, while Deportivo in their last 5 have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with 1.2 points per game. The visitors' defense makes the difference — Los Andes concede an average of 0.14 goals away and have 86% clean sheets on the road, whereas Deportivo at home concede 0.88 goals and have 25% clean sheets. The hosts have the advantage in possession and shots (60% possession and 11.63 shots per game at home versus 47% and 9.43 shots for Los Andes), but the visitors are more efficient (shot conversion 14% vs 12%) and both teams have similar xG at 1.28. Deportivo score 1.38 goals per game at home and Los Andes 1.29 away, so the hosts’ superiority in chance creation is neutralized by the visitors’ resilient defense and higher conversion. As a result I expect a low-scoring match and a Los Andes win, therefore I assess the probabilities as: 50% away win, 30% draw, 20% home win.

Both teams have very low seasonal BTTS rates: Deportivo Madryn 10% and Los Andes 14%, versus a league average of 38%, yielding a baseline estimate of around 12% for BTTS. Additionally, clean sheet percentages are high: home side 70% and away 86%, and Los Andes has kept a clean sheet in the last 5 matches (0 goals conceded), which greatly increases the likelihood that at least one team will keep a clean sheet. Looking at offense and xG: Deportivo has average xG 1.47 but actually scores 0.6 goals per match with a conversion rate of 5%, while Los Andes has 1.28 xG and scores 1.29 goals with a 14% conversion, suggesting only Los Andes is efficient at converting chances. In summary, considering BTTS averages 10%/14%, high clean sheet rates 70%/86% and the fact Los Andes haven’t conceded in 5 matches, the 'No' scenario (at least one team fails to score) is clearly more likely. I estimate BTTS 'Yes' at 15% and 'No' at 85%, therefore I recommend a 'No' bet.

Deportivo Madryn has xG_for 1.47 but scores only 0.60 goals per game on average (goals-to-xG ratio ≈ 0.6/1.47 ≈ 0.41), while Los Andes has xG_for 1.28 and actually scores 1.29 goals per game. Season metrics point to a low-scoring trend: Deportivo has recorded no matches over 2.5 goals (seasonOver25 0%), and Los Andes only 14% of such fixtures, alongside very high clean sheet rates of 70% and 86% and low BTTS of 10% and 14%. After adjusting xG for observed finishing rates I get expected goals ≈0.65 (home) and ≈1.20 (away), totaling ≈1.85 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=1.85 yields roughly a 55% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 28% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and around 12% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Given the zero Over 2.5 share for the home side, only 14% for the away side, plus high CS and low BTTS, the strongest signal is an Under at the 2.5 line.

At half-time a draw is most likely: the home side kept a clean sheet at the break in 90% of matches, the visitors in 100%, and in the last five meetings both teams kept clean sheets at HT in 100% of cases. Despite this, Los Andes are favorites for the final result — they have a 57% win rate compared to Deportivo Madryn’s 30%, score on average 1.29 goals per match versus the home side’s 0.6, and convert 14% of shots compared to the home team’s 5% conversion. Second-half analysis confirms the visitors’ advantage: they score on average 0.57 goals after the break, have over 0.5 in second halves in 71% of matches and win the second half in 56% of games (homes: 50% over 0.5 and 30% second-half wins). Additionally, the home team generates 1.47 xG with an actual average return of 0.6 goals (low 5% finishing), which increases the probability of a more clinical Los Andes; therefore the recommended HT/FT is a draw at half-time and a visitors’ win (X/2).