Deportivo Maipú vs Quilmes: match statistics

Deportivo Maipú are significantly more effective at home, averaging 1.33 goals per match, while Quilmes score just 0.92 away from home. The hosts have won 58% of their home matches, whereas the visitors have won only 8% of their away games and lost as many as 58% of them. Maipú’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, with an average home xG of 1.67 compared to Quilmes’ 1.37 away from home, alongside 14 shots per match versus 10.83. The hosts concede an average of 0.75 goals at home, while Quilmes allow opponents 1.33 goals away. The visitors have been slightly more consistent recently, scoring 9 goals in their last five matches compared to Maipú’s 6, but their poor away record and 58% of matches without scoring point towards the home side.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS - No is not simply the very low scoring efficiency of both sides over the entire season: Deportivo Maipú saw both teams score in only 23% of matches, while the figure for Quilmes was 33%, compared with a league average of 40%. The hosts are particularly difficult to break down at home, conceding just 0.38 goals per match on average and keeping a clean sheet in 62% of games. Quilmes score only 0.92 goals per away match, and failed to score in 58% of their matches, clearly increasing the risk of another blank in attack. The teams’ last five matches produced slightly higher BTTS figures, at 40% each, but Maipú still conceded only 1.2 goals per game, while the low-scoring seasonal profile remains more important. Although Quilmes’ xG from their last five matches stands at 1.85, the most likely scenario is that at least one team—primarily the visitors—will fail to score.

Deportivo Maipú concede an average of just 0.38 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 62% of games, which significantly limits the potential of Quilmes, who score 0.92 goals per game across the season. The hosts score 1.23 goals at home, while Quilmes allow opponents 1.33 goals away from home, so Maipú’s most likely contribution is around 1–2 goals. The overall profile of the competition is low-scoring, with an average of 1.94 goals and only 32% of matches featuring at least three goals. The head-to-head record for this line provides a particularly strong signal: Maipú have not recorded a single match with Over 3.5 goals, while Quilmes have stayed below this line in 75% of their games. The last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals in 40% of games for each side, but this does not outweigh the advantage of Under 3.5 at a projected total of 1.90 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Maipú win, as the hosts were level at the break in 7 of their 13 home matches, while Quilmes were level in 6 of their 12 away fixtures. The first halves are expected to be cautious: Maipú concede just 0.08 goals at home before the break and keep a clean sheet in 92% of such matches, while Quilmes score only 0.33 goals away from home during this period. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as they score an average of 0.69 goals and their opponents concede 0.67 per match in the second half. Across the season, Maipú score 1.23 goals and concede only 0.38 at home, whereas Quilmes win just 8% of their away matches and lose 58%. However, the visitors’ last five matches have been stronger, with 1.8 goals scored per game, so a draw at full-time and turnaround scenarios remain a significant risk.