Deportivo Pereira vs Santa Fe: match statistics

Santa Fe have a clearly better record over the course of the season: 8 wins and just 5 defeats, while Deportivo Pereira have won only 1 of 20 matches. The visitors are also in better current form, collecting 10 points from their last five games and conceding just 2 goals, compared with the hosts’ 8 points and 3 goals conceded. Pereira’s home advantage is limited, as they win only 11% of their matches on home soil, score an average of 1.00 goal, and fail to score in as many as 44% of games. Santa Fe are not particularly convincing away from home either: as many as 54% of their matches end in a draw, and they average just 1.08 goals per game. The visitors’ slight edge in the quality of chances created, with an xG of 1.29 versus 1.20, does not outweigh the high probability of a share of the points in a balanced, likely low-scoring match.

The historical profiles of both teams favor goals at both ends, as BTTS occurred in 73% of Deportivo Pereira matches and 77% of Santa Fe games. However, the current signal is considerably stronger: BTTS landed in only 40% of the hosts’ last 5 matches and just 20% of the visitors’ fixtures. Pereira scored 4 goals and conceded 3 during this period, while Santa Fe scored 7 and allowed only 2 goals, indicating an especially solid defensive performance from the visitors. Although the hosts have a seasonal average of 2.00 goals, their current average has dropped to 0.8, while Santa Fe kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 appearances. Therefore, No Goal for at least one team is more likely, despite the seasonal BTTS figures being clearly higher than the league average of 53%.

Deportivo Pereira score an average of 2.00 goals at home, but they have netted just 4 goals in their last five matches, or 0.80 per game. During the same period, Santa Fe conceded only 2 goals in five appearances, while Pereira conceded just 3, significantly reducing the risk of a very high-scoring game. The attacking potential remains present, as the hosts’ xG stands at 1.53 and Santa Fe allow an average of 1.61 xG, but the projected total of around 2.45 goals is still well below the four-goal mark. Across the entire season, Santa Fe matches finished under 3.5 goals in 85% of cases, while Pereira’s rate stands at 64%. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals offers the strongest edge: two or three goals are a realistic scenario, whereas the four goals needed to lose the bet would require a clear departure from both teams’ recent defensive solidity.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Santa Fe were level after 45 minutes in 69% of their matches, while both teams recorded the same result in 60% of their last five games. Pereira failed to score before the break in any of those five matches, whereas Santa Fe did not concede in the first half, clearly supporting the expectation of a cautious start. After the interval, the advantage should shift to the home side: Pereira average 1.18 goals in second halves compared with Santa Fe’s 0.69 and win this period in 64% of matches, against just 23% for the visitors. The hosts also possess superior chance-creation quality, with an average xG of 1.53 compared with their opponents’ 1.29, while Santa Fe allow opponents an xG of 1.61. The HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a Pereira win at the final whistle best combines the cautious first halves with the hosts’ clearly stronger performance after the break.