Dijon vs Pau: match statistics

Dijon come into this match in significantly better form: they have won 3 of their last five games, drawn twice and remain unbeaten. The hosts have scored 12 goals during this period—2.4 per match—while conceding only 5. By contrast, Pau have scored 5 goals and allowed their opponents to find the net 13 times. Pau have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging just 0.6 points per game compared with Dijon’s 2.2. In addition, Dijon opened the season with a 1:1 draw, whereas Pau began with a 0:1 defeat. The clear difference in current attacking efficiency and defensive stability strongly favors a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 40% of Pau’s last five matches, while the league average is just 44%. Dijon are in good offensive form, averaging 2.4 goals across their last five games, while Pau conceded as many as 2.6 goals, making a home goal highly likely. However, the key factor for this market is that Pau averaged only 1.0 goal, while Dijon’s defense allowed just 0.62 xG per match during this period. Dijon recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five appearances, but the visitors’ low attacking potential and the clear home advantage increase the likelihood of a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Dijon have averaged 2.4 goals scored over their last five matches, while Pau have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game during the same period. The hosts have won three of their last five fixtures, scoring 12 goals in total, whereas Pau have lost four matches and allowed 13 opposition goals. As many as 80% of Dijon's recent matches and 60% of Pau's fixtures went over the 2.5-goal line, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. At the same time, Dijon's xG over their last five matches stands at only 0.60, so the prediction does not anticipate an exceptionally high-scoring game. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as Pau's weak defensive performance and the hosts' recently effective attack clearly increase the likelihood of at least two goals.

Dijon are clearly the stronger side in the latest run of form: they average 2.4 goals per match, while Pau concede as many as 2.6, with win rates of 60% and 20%, respectively. The hosts were leading at the break in 75% of their recent matches and did not concede a single goal before half-time, whereas Pau were trailing after 45 minutes in 50% of their games and conceded an average of 1.25 goals. Dijon’s advantage should persist after the interval, as they average 1.75 goals in the second half, while Pau manage just 0.25 and lose the second half in 75% of cases. In addition, Dijon’s home xG stands at 1.84, compared with just 0.91 xG conceded to opponents, reinforcing the scenario of a home lead at half-time and a victory at full-time. Full-season data remains very limited, so the draw at half-time retains a significant probability; however, 1/1 remains the strongest HT/FT option.