Dila vs Dinamo Tbilisi: match statistics

The match favorite is Dinamo Tbilisi (2nd) over Dila (5th): Dinamo have won 4 of their last 5 matches and are averaging 2.6 points per game in that run, while Dila have 2 wins and 1.2 PPG. The attacking gap is clear — Dinamo scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches, Dila only 4, and Dinamo’s away goals average is 1.5 versus Dila’s 0.67 at home. Dinamo generates more and higher-quality chances: on average 12.83 shots and 4.0 on target per game with a conversion around 12%, while Dila average 10.33 shots, 3.67 on target and a 6% conversion — roughly half the efficiency. Defensively Dila are relatively solid at home (0.83 goals conceded per game, xG against 1.03), but Dinamo suppress goals conceded below expectation (on average 1.0 conceded with xG against 1.44) and are undefeated away (Loss% 0). Considering form advantage, an 11 vs 4 recent goals differential and markedly better chance conversion, I predict an away win.

Season BTTS indicators favor both teams: Dila has 57% of matches with goals from both sides, and Dinamo Tbilisi 67%, versus a league average of 54%. In the last 5 matches Dila had only 20% BTTS and averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Dinamo has 80% BTTS and averages 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the visitors. xG stats show 1.85 xG for the hosts versus 1.53 xG for Dinamo, however the visitors convert chances more efficiently (conversion 12% vs 7%) and have 17 goals scored this season compared to Dila’s 11. Additionally, the hosts average 5.57 shots on target vs 4.0 for the visitors, and clean sheets occur in 29% vs 33% of matches, which together increase the likelihood of goal exchange. Considering the seasonal 57%/67% BTTS, last 5 matches 20%/80% and the differences in conversion and xG, I assess the "BTTS - Yes" scenario as stronger and assign it a 75% probability.

I calculated expected goals by combining attack and defense: Dila’s attacking xG 1.85 and Dinamo’s xG against 1.44 yield about 1.65 xG for the home side, while Dinamo’s attacking xG 1.53 and xG against Dila 1.39 produce about 1.46 for the away side, totaling ~3.11 expected goals. Seasonally Dila scores 1.14 goals on average, Dinamo 1.50; the share of matches over 1.5 is 71% for Dila and 67% for Dinamo (avg. 69%), so the 1.5 line is strongly supported historically and the high xG confirms this direction. Additionally, Dila generates many chances (xG 1.85, 15.29 shots and 5.57 on target) but has a lower conversion rate 7% and 11 goals in the season, while Dinamo converts at 12% with 17 goals, which increases the likelihood both teams will find the net. For the 2.5 line seasonal overs are 43% (Dila) and 67% (Dinamo) with an average ~55%, and Dinamo’s last 5 matches show 2.2 goals and 80% over 2.5, so I assign Over 2.5 a probability of 62%; the 3.5 line has weaker seasonal support (14% and 33% → avg. ~23%), hence I rate Over 3.5 at 33%. In summary, the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (82%) due to the combined xG 3.11, high share of matches over 1.5 (71%/67%) and Dinamo’s form (2.2 goals in 5 matches).

I forecast a Half-Time draw and a Dinamo win at Full-Time (X/2). Hosts were level at the break in 57% of their home matches, while the visitors were level at half-time in 50%, giving an averaged probability of about 54% for a draw after 45 minutes. Nevertheless, Dinamo is stronger in the final outcome — they have a 50% win rate this season and an 80% win rate in their last five matches, and in those last five fixtures they scored 12 goals before the break compared to the hosts’ 3, indicating an edge in dictating scorelines. Additionally, Dinamo converts chances more efficiently (conversion rate 12% vs. Dili’s 7%) and scores more frequently after the break (on average 0.83 vs. 0.57), hence the most likely scenario is X/2.