Dila vs Saburtalo: match statistics

Saburtalo is the favorite for this match: they have 17 goals this season versus Dila’s 8, and in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 12 times compared to just 4 for the hosts. Away, Saburtalo averages 2.0 goals per game, records 4.67 shots on target and has a conversion rate of 21%, while Dila at home has 0.8 goals per game, 3.6 shots on target and an 8% conversion. Defensively the teams are similar — Dila concedes 0.8 goals per home match, Saburtalo concedes 0.83 away — but the visitors allow a higher expected xG against (1.28 vs 1.01 for Dila) and simultaneously make better use of their chances. Dila generates 1.39 xG at home versus the visitors’ 1.29 xG, which shows the hosts create opportunities but weaker finishing (0.8 goals from 1.39 xG) limits their potential. Considering Saburtalo’s 67% away win rate versus Dila’s 40% home win rate and the edge in efficiency (12–4 goals in the last 5), I predict a win for the visitors.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 50% each, but the last-5 form differentiates them: Dila has BTTS only 20% in the last 5, while Saburtalo has 60%. xG analysis shows average attacking xG for the home side at 1.33 versus 1.29 for the visitors, and xG against of 1.43 (Dila) and 1.28 (Saburtalo), yielding expected goals of roughly 1.31 for Dila and 1.36 for Saburtalo when averaging attack–against; total around 2.67 xG. Saburtalo have better shot conversion at 21% versus Dila’s 14% and have scored 12 goals in the last 5 (2.4 avg) while Dila scored only 4 (0.8 avg), which increases the probability that the visitors will score. The counterargument is Dila’s high clean sheet rate of 50% on the season and only 20% BTTS in the last 5, meaning a risk of a single side keeping a clean sheet; nonetheless the combined xG ~2.67 and Saburtalo’s seasonal average of 2.0 goals per game plus good finishing form favor both teams scoring. As a result I assess BTTS as more likely and set probabilities at 62% for BTTS - Yes versus 38% for No Goal.

Based on xG: Dila has xG_for 1.33 versus Saburtalo xG_against 1.28, yielding about 1.30 expected goals for Dila; Saburtalo has xG_for 1.29 versus Dila xG_against 1.43, yielding about 1.36 for Saburtalo, for a combined total of approximately 2.66 goals. Seasonal averages confirm an offensive profile — Dila scores 1.25 goals on average, Saburtalo 2.00 (combined 3.25), and Saburtalo records 100% of matches with over 0.5 goals and 83% with over 1.5 goals. Over/Under stats show both teams frequently exceed 1.5 goals (Dila 50%, Saburtalo 83% → average 66.5%), which combined with total xG 2.66 raises the probability of Over 1.5 to about 78%. Signals for the 2.5 line are moderate: seasonally Dila 50% and Saburtalo 67% of matches over 2.5 (average 58.5%), and in the last 5 matches Saburtalo has 80% Over 2.5 versus Dila 20%, leading to an estimated ~62% on Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is least likely (seasonally Dila 25%, Saburtalo 17% → average ~21%), therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Saburtalo is stronger offensively: they score an average of 2.0 goals per match versus Dila’s 1.25 and have a higher shot conversion rate (21% vs 14%), with similar xG (1.29 for the visitors vs 1.33 for the hosts). The visitors’ first-half advantage is particularly pronounced in recent matches — in the last 5 fixtures Saburtalo led at the break in 80% and scored 9 first-half goals (1.8 per match), while Dila averages 0.75 first-half goals and have not conceded before halftime all season (0.0 first-half goals conceded, 100% halftime clean sheets). The visitors also register more on-target shots (4.67 vs 4.25), which combined with higher conversion increases their chance to take a lead and maintain the result. Considering Saburtalo’s 67% win rate this season versus the hosts’ 50% and the described first-half metrics, I assign the single highest probability to the '2/2' (41%) scenario. Additionally I allocated 15% to 'X/2' and 11% to '2/X' to reflect the risk of a draw after the break or the visitors losing their lead despite good form.