Dila vs Samgurali: match statistics

Dila has a clear defensive edge at home — conceding just 0.71 goals per match on average and keeping a clean sheet in 43% of games, while Samgurali concedes as many as 2.29 goals on average away and has only 29% clean sheets. Both teams generate comparable quality of chances (average xG 1.28 for Dila at home and 1.28 for Samgurali away) and a similar number of shots (9.29 vs 9.71), but conversion is low: 6% for Dila and 7% for the visitors, resulting in low goals averages of 0.57 and 0.71. In short-term form Samgurali has 1.4 points per match in the last 5 games versus Dila’s 0.8, giving the visitors some momentum, however Samgurali lose 71% of away matches this season, which reduces their chances. As a result I expect a low-scoring game with a slight home advantage — pick: Dila to win.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 63% for Dila and 57% for Samgurali, both above the league baseline of 51%, favoring a Goal/Goal outcome. Samgurali concedes an average of 2.29 goals per match, while Dila score at home 1.5 goals on average with xG 1.52, so the hosts have a realistic chance to improve their goal return. Samgurali’s away scoring average is only 0.71 with a low shot conversion of 7%, but in the last 5 matches they have averaged 1.4 goals and their BTTS in that period is 60%, showing they can overcome inefficiency. Countering this is Dila’s poor form in the last 5 matches (0.6 goals per game and 20% BTTS), which reduces confidence that the hosts will score consistently. Considering the higher seasonal BTTS figures (63% and 57%), xG 1.52 versus 1.31 against Samgurali’s defense and the visitors’ defensive vulnerability, I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated 70% vs 30% for No.

xG estimates: Dila 1.42 and Samgurali 1.26, total 2.68 — with lambda=2.68 the Poisson distribution yields ~75% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~50% for Over 2.5 and ~28% for Over 3.5. Dila scores on average 1.50 goals and has xG 1.52, while Samgurali concedes on average 2.29 goals and has xG against 1.31; hosts have a shot conversion rate of 13% versus the visitors’ 7%, which favors Dila finding the net. Both teams show high BTTS rates: Dila 63% and Samgurali 57%, and the league average is 2.35 goals, further boosting the probability of at least two goals. Considering the above figures and seasonal indicators (Dila has 75% of matches Over 1.5, Samgurali 57%), the strongest signal is Over 1.5; Over 2.5 is marginal (~52%) and Over 3.5 unlikely (~28%).

Dila has a clear edge in season-long metrics: they average 1.5 goals per game versus Samgurali’s 0.71 and accumulate 1.75 points per home match compared to the visitors’ 0.57. First-half data strongly favor the hosts — Dila scores on average 0.5 goals by the break, Samgurali only 0.14, while Samgurali concedes 1.14 goals before halftime on average, which increases Dila’s probability of holding a lead at the break. Dila generates more chances and is more efficient: xG 1.52 versus 1.28, 4.5 shots on target against 3.0 and a conversion rate of 13% versus 7% for the visitors, which translates into both a higher likelihood of leading and of maintaining the result. A draw at half-time is still realistic — the hosts were level at the break in 38% of matches — so the distribution includes a meaningful share of half-time draws with a subsequent home comeback as well as draw/draw outcomes. Considering Dila’s 50% win rate this season versus Samgurali’s 14%, the most probable scenario is Dila leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1).