Dinamo Batumi vs Dila: match statistics

Dinamo Batumi holds a clear advantage in both quality and volume of chances — at home they average 11.75 shots per match (4.13 on target) with a conversion rate of 14% and score 1.63 goals per match (xG 1.45), whereas Dila away averages 9.88 shots (3.25 on target), a 9% conversion and 0.88 goals per match (xG 1.24). In form Dinamo have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches and won 3 of them, yielding 2.0 points per match over that span, while Dila have scored only 5 goals, won 1 match and average 0.8 points per match. Defensively Dila look more solid on the road — they concede 0.88 goals per away match and keep a clean sheet in 38% of games, whereas Dinamo at home concede 1.5 goals per match and have only 13% clean sheets. Considering Dinamo’s superiority in possession (57% vs 48%) combined with markedly better conversion and higher xG (1.45 vs 1.24), the hosts have a greater chance to lead, although Dila can limit opponents’ shots and win low-scoring games. Therefore I project a home win (1) with approximately 60% probability, draw 25% and a Dila win 15%.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are low: Dinamo Batumi has BTTS at 38% and Dila 25%, averaging 32%, which is below the league level of 53%. The league also features a high clean sheet rate of 59%, and both teams individually have 38% clean sheets, supporting the scenario that at least one side will fail to score. In the last 5 matches the home side has BTTS 60% (scoring 1.8 on average and conceding 1.2), while the away side has 40% (scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4), which favors the hosts but does not markedly increase the probability of Goal/Goal. xG shows both teams generate about 1.34 and 1.24 xG, yet seasonal goal averages are only 0.75 and 0.88, indicating poor finishing (conversion rates 8% and 9%) and raising the risk that one team will not convert created chances. Considering the low seasonal BTTS (38% and 25%), the league’s high clean sheet rate of 59% and limited finishing efficiency, I forecast No Goal as more likely (65% No vs 35% BTTS - Yes).

Based on xG I calculated expected goals: Dinamo Batumi has xG_for 1.34 and Dila concedes xG_against 1.32, yielding an expected 1.33 for the home side; Dila has xG_for 1.24 and Batumi xG_against 1.18, giving 1.21 for the away side and a total of 2.54. With a total of 2.54 the Poisson model indicates approximately 72% probability for Over 1.5, 47% for Over 2.5 and 25% for Over 3.5. Actual season goals per game are lower (Batumi 0.75 at home, Dila 0.88 away) and the season Over 2.5 rate is only 25% for both teams, but in the last 5 matches Batumi averages 1.8 goals per game with 60% Over 2.5, which raises the short-term likelihood of more goals. Season stats also show Over 0.5 occurs frequently (88% for Batumi, 100% for Dila), while the rate of both teams scoring is relatively low: 38% for Batumi and 25% for Dila. Considering this, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5, therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5.

The strongest signal is that Dila were level at the break in 7 of their matches to date, i.e. in 88% of their games, which significantly increases the probability of a draw at 45 minutes. However, Dinamo Batumi tends to open the scoring early — they have scored 3 goals in the 0–15 minute window and have 9 goals at halftime compared to Dila's 4, with the home side’s average first-half goals at 0.63, so an early scoring start by the hosts is realistic. The visitors, meanwhile, score more often after the break: they average 0.5 goals in the second half and in 88% of their matches there is at least one goal after the break, which favors a turnaround. Additionally, Dila have better league results (an average of 1.5 points per game versus the home team’s 1.0) and win 50% of matches compared to Dinamo’s 25%, which increases the likelihood of an away victory. Taking into account Dila’s 88% rate of being level at halftime and the 88% frequency of goals by the visitors after the break, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win (HT/FT X/2).