Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dinamo Batumi: match statistics

Dinamo Tbilisi has an advantage in chance creation — home xG 1.59 with 13.5 shots and 3.5 on target per game, versus Dinamo Batumi’s xG 1.10, 8 shots and 1.33 on target. However, Tbilisi converts that into only 0.5 goals per home game and records 50% shutouts, while Batumi scores 0.33 goals on average away and fails to score in 67% of their away matches. Defensively the hosts perform better — they concede 1.0 goal per home game vs Batumi’s 1.33 conceded away, and clean sheet rates of 50% compared to 33% for the visitors. Both teams have identical form over the last 5 matches (1W, 3D, 1L) and average 1.2 points in that period, which raises the probability of a draw, but Tbilisi’s edge in xG and shots gives them a slight advantage. Considering this, I tip a narrow home preference: 45% for 1, 35% draw and 20% for away win.

Seasonal data give mixed signals: Dinamo Tbilisi has a seasonal home BTTS of 100% and 0% clean sheets, meaning home matches always saw goals from both sides; conversely Dinamo Batumi has a low away scoring average of 0.33 goals and failed to score in 67% of away games, which argues against BTTS. In the last 5 matches the picture evens out – BTTS is 40% for Tbilisi and 60% for Batumi, and goals per game in the last 5 are 0.6 for Tbilisi and 1.2 for Batumi, suggesting Batumi has been finding the net more often recently. Last 5 xG shows 1.66 for Tbilisi and 1.12 for Batumi, with xG against of 1.29 and 1.20 respectively, indicating both teams generate over 1.1 xG and have realistic chances to score. However, chance creation favors the hosts: Tbilisi averages 4.5 shots on target versus 1.33 for Batumi, and seasonal shot conversion of 25% versus 4% for Batumi increases the likelihood of a home goal; combining this with the 100% home BTTS, I favor the Both Teams To Score = Yes scenario.

Dinamo Tbilisi scores on average 2.5 goals per home match with xG 1.28 and 4.5 shots on target, while Dinamo Batumi averages 0.33 goals away with xG 1.10 and 1.33 shots on target. The hosts are clearly more efficient (conversion 25% vs 4% for Batumi), which, given Tbilisi’s average of 10 shots, provides a strong goal impetus from their side. Averaging chance quality (xG 1.28/1.10) with observed conversion yields expected goals of 1.90 for the home team and 0.70 for the visitors (total 2.60). A Poisson model for a total expectation of 2.60 gives roughly a 73% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 48% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 26% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Considering Tbilisi have Over 1.5 in 100% of home matches and the forecasted 73% probability of at least 2 strikes, the strongest and most reliable pick is Over 1.5.

Dinamo Tbilisi has a clear advantage at Half-Time: they average 1.5 goals by the break versus 0.33 for Dinamo Batumi, and shots on target are 4.5 vs 1.33, giving the home side a strong chance to lead after 45 minutes. Historically the hosts led at the break in 50% of matches, while the visitors did so in only 33% of cases, which further supports Tbilisi’s advantage in the opening period. Seasonally Tbilisi records 2.0 points per game and averages 2.5 goals per match, whereas Batumi has only 0.67 points and 0.33 goals per game, so over the full match a home win is the most likely outcome. This is reinforced by higher offensive efficiency (xG 1.28 vs 1.1 and a conversion rate of 25% vs 4%), and the fact the hosts have scored 3 goals in minutes 0–15 this season — hence the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1) is the strongest. Considering also the last 5 matches, where the hosts had an 80% rate of draws at half-time, I cautiously estimate a 51% probability for 1/1, with the next most likely option being draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1) at ~16%.