Dinamo Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: match statistics

I back the home win (1) because Dinamo Tirana are 1-3-1 in their last 5 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss) with 5 goals scored, while Egnatia are 0-2-3 with only 3 goals. At home Dinamo average 14.38 shots per game with 4.88 on target and 60% possession, translating to 1.44 goals per game and xG 1.85; Egnatia away average 9.63 shots, 3.5 on target, 55% possession, 0.81 goals per game and xG 1.27. Home conversion rate is 10% versus the visitors’ 8% on the road, and Dinamo have conceded 6 goals in their last 5 matches compared to Egnatia’s 9, which amplifies the visitors’ problems. Seasonally both teams have 38 goals scored and 29 conceded, but Dinamo’s superiority in quality of chances (xG 1.85 vs 1.27) and a better recent points average over the last 5 (1.2 vs 0.4) favor the hosts. I assess chances at 55% for Dinamo, 25% for a draw and 20% for an Egnatia win.

I assess that BTTS - No is more likely, since the seasonal BTTS rate is 35% for Dinamo and 31% for Egnatia, yielding a low seasonal baseline around 33%. In the last 5 matches Dinamo has BTTS 80% and Egnatia 60%, but in that period Dinamo averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded 1.2, while Egnatia scored 0.6 and conceded 1.8 per match, indicating the away side rarely responds with goals. Seasonal goals averages 1.47 (Dinamo) vs 0.81 (Egnatia), xG 1.6 vs 1.27 and 4.65 shots on target vs 3.5 with conversion 11% vs 8% confirm the home advantage in creating and finishing chances. Additionally both teams keep clean sheets in 41% (Dinamo) and 44% (Egnatia) of matches, and the league clean sheet rate is 66%, which further reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Therefore I estimate BTTS probability at 40% (yes) vs 60% (no) and recommend selecting No.

The xG-based model projects 1.40 goals for Dinamo (home xG 1.60 vs xG conceded to Egnatia 1.20) and 1.12 for Egnatia (away xG 1.27 vs xG conceded to Dinamo 0.96), yielding ~2.52 goals total. Dinamo averages 13.24 shots per game versus Egnatia’s 9.63 and has a higher conversion rate (11% vs 8%), increasing the likelihood of goals on the home side. Season metrics show Over 1.5 in 65% of Dinamo’s matches and 44% of Egnatia’s, while in the last 5 fixtures BTTS is 80% for the home side and 60% for the away side, further supporting Over 1.5. Over 2.5 is less certain — season Over25 is 35% for Dinamo and 25% for Egnatia, and the model estimates ~46% probability for Over 2.5; the probability of 4+ goals is around 25%, so 3.5 favors the Under. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Dinamo has a clear advantage in the quality of attacking situations: xG 1.60 versus Egnatia’s 1.27 and an average of 13.24 shots (4.65 on target) compared to 9.63 (3.5 on target) for the visitors. Despite this, the home side are often in an unfavorable position at the break — Dinamo lead at half-time in only 29% of matches and are trailing at half-time in 41% (trailingAtHT_home 41%), while Egnatia were leading at half-time in 38% of their games (leadingAtHTPercentage_away 38%). After the break Dinamo are strong: on average 1.41 goals in the second half (AVG_2hg_home 1.41), scoring 1.06 goals after half-time (scored_2hg_avg_home 1.06) and winning second halves in 53% of cases (wins_2hg_percentage_home 53%), which favors turnarounds. Additionally, the hosts have scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90 versus only 1 goal for the visitors in that interval, so the most reliable signal is Egnatia leading at half-time and Dinamo winning at full-time (HT/FT 2/1).