Djurgården vs Örgryte: match statistics

Djurgården sit 2nd and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 3; Örgryte, 15th in the table, have won once in that period and conceded 12 goals. At home, the hosts average 2.5 goals per match, while the visitors concede 2.67 per away game and have lost 83% of those matches. Djurgården’s edge in chance creation is reflected in their home xG of 1.81 compared with Örgryte’s away xG of 1.10, as well as 6 shots on target per match against 3.42. The visitors have failed to score in 58% of their away matches, further limiting their chances given that the hosts concede an average of 1.17 goals at home. Although Djurgården have lost 42% of their home matches, the scale of their attacking advantage and their recent results point to a home win.

Örgryte’s scoring record is the biggest obstacle to BTTS - Yes: the visitors average 0.67 goals per match and have failed to score in 58% of their games, while Djurgården average 1.75 goals. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of matches, but have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals across their last five, limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. Örgryte, meanwhile, concede an average of 2.67 goals per match, and 2.4 across their last five, making a Djurgården goal considerably more likely. One argument against this pick is that BTTS - Yes has landed in 80% of the visitors’ last five matches; however, their average xG over that span was just 0.88, compared with 1.42 for the hosts. Therefore, the marginally more likely scenario is that Djurgården score and Örgryte finish the match without a goal. This supports BTTS - No, which means at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0-0 draw.

At least two goals were scored in 92% of matches involving the two teams, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Djurgården average 1.75 goals at home, while Örgryte concede 2.67 away from home, giving the hosts a clear chance to cover this line on their own. In their last five matches, Djurgården averaged 2.6 goals scored, while Örgryte conceded 2.4; the visitors' xG against was 2.39 over that period. Caution with higher goal lines is warranted, as Örgryte failed to score in 58% of their matches, while Over 3.5 landed in 33% of the visitors' games.

In their last five matches, Djurgården led at the break four times, while Örgryte did not lead at half-time at all, indicating a home advantage from the first half. Djurgården also won four of those five matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals, whereas the visitors lost three times and conceded an average of 2.4 goals. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.17 goals, while Örgryte concede 1.67 and lose the second half in 83% of matches, making the hosts most likely to hold on to their lead. Caution is warranted because season data show Djurgården led at half-time in only 8% of matches; as a result, a half-time draw followed by a home win remains a significant alternative.