Dordrecht vs Roda JC: match statistics

Season-long metrics favor the visitors: Roda have scored 51 goals versus Dordrecht’s 44 and average 1.69 goals per away game with a 12% conversion rate, while Dordrecht at home average 1.38 goals with 9% conversion. Roda also have a higher away win rate (50%) with 13% losses, whereas Dordrecht win 31% and lose 38% of home fixtures; hosts concede 1.25 goals per home match versus 1.44 conceded by Roda on the road. However, the hosts generate more chances — 16.13 shots and 1.77 xG at home versus 14.06 shots and 1.55 xG for Roda — and maintain a higher clean sheet rate (25% vs 13%), which partially offsets the visitors’ efficiency edge. Over the last 5 matches both teams share an identical record (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and average 0.6 points per game, so short-term form is balanced. Considering the season-long goal advantage (51 vs 44), superior shot conversion and higher away win percentage, I forecast a victory for the visitors, though a draw remains a realistic outcome.

I favor BTTS - Yes based on clear statistical signals: Roda has BTTS in 81% of matches versus 53% for Dordrecht, with the league average at 62%, which supports a both-teams-to-score scenario. Both sides concede frequently — Dordrecht 1.47 goals conceded per match, Roda 1.44 — and have low clean sheet expected rates: 29% and 13%, so a clean sheet is unlikely. Offensively both teams create chances: average goals scored 1.41 (Dordrecht) and 1.69 (Roda), xG for the home side 1.69 and for the visitors 1.55, and average shots on target 5.41 vs 5.19, increasing the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Dordrecht had BTTS in 100% (scored/conceded 6/9), and Roda in 60% (scored/conceded 4/7), so the hosts in particular have recently been allowing goals at both ends. Overall, taking into account the season BTTS figures 81% vs 53%, Dordrecht’s 100% in the last 5, and the low clean sheet probabilities (29% and 13%), I assess BTTS at 80% vs 20% for No Goal and indicate "yes" as the best pick.

The xG-based model projects 1.62 xG for Dordrecht (attacking xG 1.69 vs xG conceded to Roda 1.54) and 1.48 xG for Roda (attacking xG 1.55 vs xG conceded to Dordrecht 1.40), totaling 3.10 expected goals. Under a Poisson distribution with λ=3.10 the probability of Over 1.5 goals is about 82%, Over 2.5 about 60%, and Over 3.5 about 38%. Seasonal data support this picture: Over 1.5 occurred in 82% of Dordrecht’s matches and 88% of Roda’s matches, while the league average is 3.19 goals and 63% of matches Over 2.5. Roda records BTTS in 81% of games, Dordrecht has only 29% clean sheets, and both teams combine for roughly 30 shots on target/attempts on average (Dordrecht 14.94, Roda 14.06) and ~10.6 shots on target (5.41 + 5.19), which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5) — the high expected total of 3.10 goals and the consistency of seasonal percentages (82–88%) give an edge over the under.

Dordrecht led at the break in 18% of their matches, while Roda did so in 31%, with half-time draws occurring on average around 36% (41% for Dordrecht vs 31% for Roda). After the break the visitors are more effective — Roda scores on average 1.00 goals after half-time versus 0.82 for Dordrecht and finds the net in the second half in 94% of matches compared to 76% for the hosts. Roda wins 50% of matches versus 24% for Dordrecht and records higher away xG (1.55) than the average xG against Dordrecht (1.40), suggesting a real advantage for the visitors. The strongest signal is 2/2 (visitors leading at half-time and winning) — I estimated it at 23% as the single highest category; the second-strongest is a half-time draw and an away win (X/2) at 18%.