Dubrava Zagreb vs Bijelo Brdo: match statistics

Dubrava Zagreb is the favorite in this fixture: at home they average 1.42 goals per game with 3.67 shots on target and xG 1.45, whereas Bijelo Brdo on the road manage only 0.67 goals per game, 2.67 shots on target and xG 1.21. The difference in finishing efficiency is clear — hosts convert 13% of shots into goals at home versus 8% for the visitors away, and Bijelo Brdo fail to score in 58% of their away matches while Dubrava finish scoreless in only 25% of home games. Outcome metrics reinforce the advantage: Dubrava win 58% of home matches, while the visitors have only an 8% away win rate; the visitors also have an away goal difference of -9 compared to 0 for the hosts. A cautionary note is Dubrava’s recent defensive form — they conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per match), which lowers the confidence in a clean result, and both teams have struggled for points recently (Dubrava 0.8 points per match in the last 5, Bijelo Brdo 0.6). Nonetheless, the attacking edge, higher volume of shots and superior xG favor a home win.

Seasonal indicators point against BTTS: Dubrava has a season BTTS rate of just 17% and kept a clean sheet in 75% of matches, while Bijelo Brdo scores on average 0.67 goals per game. In the last 5 matches Dubrava, however, shows 60% BTTS and conceded on average 2.4 goals per game, indicating short-term defensive issues, but this is an anomaly against the season-long home advantage. In terms of creation, Dubrava has xG_for 1.61 and 4.75 shots on target per game versus Bijelo Brdo xG_for 1.21 and 2.67 shots on target, with Bijelo Brdo’s low shot conversion 8.0% making it harder for them to break down defenses. Additionally the league shows a high percentage of clean sheets (68%) and an average goals 2.21, so based on seasonal data I assign 70% probability to “No” and 30% to “Yes”, choosing “No” as the recommended pick.

I expect 1.48 goals for Dubrava Zagreb and 1.06 for Bijelo Brdo, totaling 2.54 (calculated as the average of attack xG and defense xG: (1.61+1.34)/2 = 1.48 and (1.21+0.91)/2 = 1.06). The combined attack xG of both teams is 2.82 (1.61+1.21), and the expected 2.54 is above the league average of 2.21, which favors Overs, particularly Over 1.5 goals. This season Dubrava has 58% of matches over 1.5 goals, Bijelo Brdo 67% — an average around 62%; additionally the home side have 60% Over 2.5 in their last 5 matches and conceded 12 goals in those 5 games (2.4 per game), increasing the likelihood of more goals. However, seasonal Over 2.5 rates are low (25% for both teams) and Over 3.5 is also rare (8% home, 17% away), so I assign a moderate probability to Over 2.5 (58%) and a low share for Over 3.5 (18%). The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — expected 2.54 goals, combined xG 2.82 and 58%/67% season rates >1.5 translate into a high probability of about 78% for Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is X/1 (draw at Half-Time, home win Full-Time). The hosts were level at the break in 5 of 12 matches (42%) and led at half-time in 4 of 12 (33%), while showing a clear advantage in the second half – they score an average of 0.83 goals after the break and concede only 0.17. This season Dubrava at home averages 1.25 goals and has an xG of 1.61 versus Bijelo Brdo’s 0.67 goals and xG 1.21; the home side records 4.75 shots on target per game compared to 2.67 for the visitors, indicating better chance creation. Additionally Dubrava have kept a clean sheet in 75% of home matches, whereas Bijelo Brdo have only 8% of matches without conceding, and minute-by-minute data shows the hosts scored 5 goals in the 76–90 minute window while the visitors conceded 5 goals in that period, suggesting decisive outcomes after the break. Accordingly I assign the highest probability to X/1 (25%), with notable alternatives 1/1 (21%) and X/X (13%).