Dubrava Zagreb vs Sesvete: match statistics

Sesvete are the favorites: they sit 2nd in the table vs Dubrava’s 7th and have 13 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 9. Form clearly favors the visitors — Sesvete average 2.0 points in their last 5 matches (3W, 1D, 1L), while Dubrava average only 0.8 points (1W, 1D, 3L). Sesvete’s defense is stronger: 0.92 goals conceded on average away and 50% clean sheets, whereas Dubrava concede 1.5 goals at home and have 21% clean sheets; in the last 5 matches the visitors conceded 6 goals, the hosts 14. The hosts create more chances (10.64 shots and xG 1.44 at home vs 7.33 shots and xG 1.12 for the visitors) and both teams scored 8 goals in their last five games, however Sesvete are more efficient in front of goal (conversion 16% vs 13%). Considering the better form, lower average goals conceded (0.92 vs 1.5) and greater attacking efficiency, I favor an away win; a draw remains a possible outcome.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from recent form: the home side have BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, the visitors in 60%, and both sides averaged 1.6 goals each in those games. The home team conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match over the last 5 (14 goals in 5 matches), while Sesvete conceded 1.2 goals per match (6 goals in 5 matches), which increases the likelihood that both teams will find the net. However, long-term data weakens this signal: season BTTS rates are 36% for Dubrava and 42% for Sesvete, and clean sheet percentages are 57% and 50% respectively, suggesting that matches without both teams scoring are common over the season. xG and shot stats nevertheless support the Yes option — average xG is 1.36 for the home side vs 1.12 for the visitors, and the home team averages 4.38 shots on target compared to 3.5 for the visitors, which gives a realistic chance of exchanged goals. Considering the dominant impact of recent form (80% and 60%) and the high recent goals conceded by the home side (2.8), I pick BTTS - Yes with an estimated 65% vs 35% for No.

I project 1.29 goals for Dubrava and 1.17 for Sesvete, totaling 2.46 goals — based on home xG 1.36 and away xG 1.12 and opponent xG conceded of 1.21 for both teams. With this sum (lambda=2.46) the probability of Over 1.5 is ~70%, Over 2.5 ~45%, and Over 3.5 ~23% (Poisson distribution calculations). Seasonal metrics show Over 2.5 is not dominant: season-wide Dubrava has Over 2.5 in 29% of matches, Sesvete 25%, while Over 1.5 occurs more often (57% vs 67%). Dubrava’s last 5 matches are 100% Over 2.5 and 80% BTTS, whereas Sesvete’s last 5 are 40% Over 2.5 and 60% BTTS, which increases variance and the risk of Over 2.5 compared to the seasonal trend. Given the combined xG of 2.46 and the low seasonal share for Over 3.5 (7–8%), the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Under 3.5 (≈77% probability).

A draw at half-time is highly likely: the hosts were level at the break in 57% of their matches, and the visitors in 50%. Dubrava is strong after the interval — in second halves they score on average 0.86 goals and concede only 0.29, have a positive +8 goal differential in second halves and win 50% of second halves, which increases the chance of a turnaround after the break. Additionally, the hosts have higher xG (1.36 vs 1.12), shoot more often (9.85 vs 7.33) and record more shots on target (4.38 vs 3.5), meaning they create more goal-scoring opportunities. At the same time Dubrava rarely concedes before half-time (on average 0.21 goals in the first half and 79% of matches with a clean sheet at the break), so the strongest signal from the data is a draw at half-time and a home win by full-time.