Dundalk vs Drogheda United: match statistics

Dundalk sits 4th in the table while Drogheda are 8th, and the metrics strongly favor the hosts: at home Dundalk win 55% of matches, score on average 1.82 goals and concede 1.18, whereas the visitors have only an 18% win rate away, score 1.18 and concede 2.18. In the last 5 matches Dundalk scored 8 goals and averaged 1.8 points per game (3 wins, 2 losses), while Drogheda have 5 goals, 11 conceded and only 0.4 points per game (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). The hosts create significantly more chances: at home they average 15.45 shots with 6.09 on target and xG 1.78, versus 8.82 shots, 2.91 on target and xG 1.00 for the visitors away, indicating higher quality chances for Dundalk. Additionally Dundalk maintain 52% possession at home and have had 0% matches without scoring, and 36% clean sheets at home, whereas Drogheda have only 9% clean sheets away and a 64% away loss rate. Based on these figures I predict a home win.

Seasonal BTTS rates show 50% for Dundalk at home vs 73% for Drogheda away, with a league average of 59%, favoring a both teams to score scenario. Drogheda concedes on average 2.18 goals per season and 2.2 in the last 5 matches, while Dundalk scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 per match) and has a recent xG of 1.81, so the hosts create chances and can capitalize. Counter signals are Dundalk’s 42% clean sheets at home and seasonal averages of 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, indicating the hosts can also keep a clean sheet. Additionally, Drogheda had only 40% BTTS in the last 5 matches and averaged 1.0 goals (5 in 5), and the visitors average 8.82 shots and 2.91 shots on target per match, which may limit their efficiency. Weighing Drogheda’s strong seasonal 73% away BTTS and high average goals conceded 2.18 against Dundalk’s defensive stability (42% CS), I assess BTTS probability at 66% vs 34% and tip 'BTTS - Yes' as the best pick.

A model based on xG and seasonal averages predicts 1.61 goals for Dundalk and 1.28 for Drogheda, totalling 2.89 goals, which is slightly above the league average of 2.78. Seasonal indicators show Dundalk has 67% of matches with at least 2 goals and Drogheda 91%; for Over 2.5 goals the figures are 42% and 64% respectively, providing a mixed but positive signal for Over 2.5. Drogheda concedes on average 2.18 goals per game and has only 9% clean sheets, while Dundalk averages 11.75 shots (3.83 on target) and has an average xG of 1.81 over the last 5 matches, so both teams create scoring opportunities. Considering the combined expected goals of 2.89 and the high share of Over 1.5 matches (67% and 91%), I assign 82% probability to Over 1.5, 60% to Over 2.5 and 34% to Over 3.5; the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Dundalk led at half-time in 5 matches (42%), while Drogheda led at half-time only once (9%) and were behind at the break in 55% of their games, suggesting a home advantage at half-time. The home side scores on average 0.75 goals by half-time versus 0.18 for the visitors, and Dundalk’s xG is 1.30 compared to Drogheda’s 1.00, indicating higher quality of created chances. Dundalk averages 11.75 shots per game (3.83 on target) with 42% of matches keeping a clean sheet, whereas the visitors have only 9% clean sheets and concede 2.18 goals per game on average, which increases the likelihood of the hosts maintaining a lead. In the last 5 matches Dundalk have 3 wins (form: 'W W W L L'), while Drogheda are without a win (last 5: 'D L D L L'), therefore the strongest signal is Dundalk leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).