Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.: match statistics

I predict a Dundalk win (1). At home they average 2.33 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded per game, with a 67% clean sheet rate and 0% home defeats. Dundalk are also far more efficient in shot conversion — the home conversion rate is 14% with averages of 6 shots on target and 17 shots overall, while St Patrick's away conversion is only 7% with the same averages of 6 on target and 17 shots. The visitors are league leaders (position 1) and show an impressive attacking run: 15 goals in the last 5 matches (3.0 per game) and an average of 2.6 points per game, with an xG of 1.90 versus Dundalk's 1.81. Despite that, St Patrick's have failed to score in 50% of their away matches and concede 1.00 goal on average away, which against Dundalk's stable defense (0.33 conceded and 67% clean sheets) gives the hosts the edge. Considering Dundalk's superior home goal output (2.33 vs 1.25), better conversion (14% vs 7%) and unbeaten home record, I assign 55% probability to the home win, 20% to a draw and 25% to the away win.

Looking at seasonal data, Dundalk score an average of 2.6 goals at home and have an xG of 2.29, while also keeping a clean sheet in 60% of home matches, with a season BTTS rate of 40%. St Patrick's away score an average of 1.25 goals, concede 1.0 and have a season BTTS of only 25%, meaning both-teams-to-score occurs less frequently in their away games. In the last 5 fixtures both teams have a BTTS of 60%: Dundalk in that period average 2.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, while St Patrick's have 3.0 for and 1.0 against; additionally recent xG is 1.95 for Dundalk and 2.64 for St Patrick's, which increases the likelihood of an away goal. Considering the hosts' strong defensive metrics (60% clean sheets) and the visitors' low seasonal BTTS (25%), the signal favors No Goal, although the visitors' form reduces that edge. Therefore I assign 40% to 'BTTS - Yes' and 60% to 'No Goal' and recommend backing 'No Goal'.

Dundalk averages 2.6 goals scored per home match (xG 2.29) and concedes only 0.4, while St Patrick's averages 1.25 goals scored away (xG 1.90) and concedes 1.0. Averaging the home attack with the away defense yields an expected 1.84 goals for Dundalk and 1.48 for St Patrick's, totaling 3.32 expected goals. From a Poisson model at a mean of 3.32, the probability of Over 1.5 is ≈84%, Over 2.5 ≈64%, and Over 3.5 ≈42%, which aligns with seasonal metrics (Dundalk has 60% of home matches over 2.5). Additionally, Dundalk registers more shots (20.8 vs 17.0) and has higher finishing efficiency (13% vs 7%), and in the last 5 matches both teams have 60% of games over 2.5 goals, which reinforces the goals signal. Therefore I recommend an Over 1.5 stake as the strongest signal (play the line at 1.5).

Numerical indicators point to Dundalk's advantage: on average 2.6 goals per match versus St Patrick's 1.25, with xG 2.29 vs 1.90; the hosts average 7.4 shots on target compared to 6.0 and have a conversion rate of 13% versus the opponent's 7%. At half-time Dundalk score an average of 0.8 goals, while St Patrick's only 0.25, and the hosts lead at the break in 40% of matches whereas the visitors lead in 25% and matches are level at half-time in 75% of cases. At home Dundalk win 80% of matches and keep a clean sheet in 60% of games this season, with an average of 0.4 goals conceded per match — this suggests maintaining the lead after the break. The visitors are in good form over the last five matches (4 wins and 1 draw, 80% wins), but the low half-time efficiency (0.25 goals per half) and lower xG do not offset the home advantage. Therefore the strongest HT/FT signal is 1/1 (Dundalk leading at half-time and winning the match).