Dundee vs Livingston: match statistics

Dundee has the home advantage: they average 1.47 goals per match with xG 1.24 and attempt 10.65 shots (3.53 on target), while Livingston on the road record only 0.89 goals with xG 1.05 and 8.78 shots (2.89 on target). The hosts are also more efficient — their conversion rate is 14% versus 10% for the visitors, and Livingston fail to score in 44% of their away games, which significantly limits their points potential. Defensively Dundee perform better at home: they concede 1.53 goals per match (xG against 1.75), whereas Livingston concede 2.00 goals on average away (xG against 1.88) and have a negative away goal difference of -20. Recent form gives a mixed signal — Livingston have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches and average 1.0 points per match in that period, while Dundee have only 4 goals and 0.8 points per match, indicating the visitors can collect points but do so inconsistently. Considering superior shot efficiency (1.47 vs 0.89 goals), lower goals conceded (1.53 vs 2.00) and the visitors’ poor away metrics (6% away wins and 44% of away matches without a goal), I predict a Dundee victory and assign probabilities: 60% Dundee win, 25% draw, 15% Livingston win.

Dundee has a season BTTS rate of 88% versus Livingston's 50% and a 51% league average, strongly favoring a Both Teams To Score scenario. Both sides possess weak defenses: Dundee concedes 1.88 goals per game (56 conceded this season), Livingston 2.00 (68 conceded), with average goals scored of 1.35 and 0.89 respectively. xG also supports goals at both ends — Dundee xG 1.27 vs Livingston 1.05, while xG against is 1.63 and 1.88; in the last 5 matches xG stood at 1.05 for Dundee and 1.28 for Livingston, indicating both teams create chances. Additionally, Dundee has 0% clean sheets this season and Livingston 17%, and the home side averages 3.76 shots on target with a 13% conversion compared to 2.89 and 10% for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of goals from both teams; therefore the pick is BTTS - Yes 75% vs 25%.

Dundee averages 1.35 goals scored with an xG of 1.27, while Livingston concedes 2.00 goals on average with xG against 1.88; averaging the home attack xG (1.27) and the away defense xG (1.88) yields approximately 1.58 expected goals for Dundee. For Livingston, averaging xG_for 1.05 and the home xG_against 1.63 gives about 1.34 expected goals for the visitors, totaling 2.92 expected goals which exceeds the league average of 2.74. The stats support this picture: 71% of Dundee’s matches and 56% of Livingston’s matches finish Over 2.5 goals, and in 88% of Dundee’s games and 50% of Livingston’s games both teams scored. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I estimate ~95%), although Over 2.5 also looks strong (~70%), and Over 3.5 has moderate chances (~40%), so I select Over 1.5 as the best line to play.

Dundee averages 1.35 goals per match versus Livingston’s 0.89; their xG is 1.27 compared to 1.05, and average shots on target are 3.76 vs 2.89 with conversion rates of 13% vs 10%, giving the home side an offensive edge. Despite this, Dundee win only 6% of home matches while draws account for 47% of their results (visitors draw 33% of matches), which strongly supports a draw as the full-time outcome. Additionally, 88% of Dundee’s home games end with both teams scoring, while Livingston’s BTTS rate is 50%; however, both teams scoring by half-time occurs in only 18% of cases — this suggests a scoring draw after 90 minutes (e.g. 1:1). At half-time the hosts lead in 29% of matches versus the visitors’ 6%, but half-time draws occur in 24% for Dundee and 39% for Livingston, confirming a high probability of a draw at the break. Therefore I select HT/FT 'X/X' as the most likely scenario (30%), with the second option 'X/1' (22%) arising from the home side’s superior shots and xG.