Dunfermline Athletic vs Greenock Morton: match statistics

I predict a home win because Dunfermline has a clear advantage in form and quality of chances created. Dunfermline won 4 of their last 5 matches (1 draw) and scored 12 goals in that period, averaging 2.6 points per game, whereas Greenock Morton have 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, 1.2 points per game and only 5 goals scored. At home Dunfermline averages 10.87 shots and 4.47 on target per game with xG 1.43, while Morton away average 7.47 shots and 2.8 on target with xG 1.01, which indicates better chance creation effectiveness for the hosts. Defensively Dunfermline concede 1.07 goals in home matches and have 47% of games with clean sheets, whereas Morton concede 1.53 goals away and have only 20% clean sheets; in the last 5 matches the hosts conceded 2 goals and the visitors 8. On this basis I assess the home win probability at 65%, draw 20% and away win 15%.

I pick 'yes' because the data signals favor a both teams to score scenario — season BTTS rate for Greenock Morton is 67% versus 44% for Dunfermline, with the league BTTS average at 48%. Morton average 1.13 goals per away game and have a 15% shot conversion rate, and their matches have produced BTTS in 60% of their last 5 outings, which increases the likelihood they score in this fixture as well. Dunfermline have strong home form (wwwwd): 12 goals scored in their last 5 matches (2.4 per game) and only 2 conceded (0.4 per game), and their clean sheet expected rate at home is 31%, which argues against BTTS. On the other hand Morton’s defense is vulnerable — opponents have generated on average 1.93 xG against them and scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches; combining this with Dunfermline’s offensive form and Morton’s superior conversion (15% vs 9%) indicates both teams have realistic scoring chances. Therefore I estimate BTTS probability at 65% and No BTTS at 35% and recommend the 'yes' bet as the stronger signal based on Morton’s season and last-5 stats (67% season BTTS and 60% in last 5).

Based on xG I expect 1.42 goals for Dunfermline and 1.26 for Morton, calculated as averages (1.29 + 1.54)/2 = 1.42 and (1.01 + 1.51)/2 = 1.26, giving a combined 2.68 xG. Season averages show Dunfermline scores 0.94 goals and Morton 1.13, but in the last 5 matches Dunfermline scored 2.4 goals on average (12 goals in 5 matches) and conceded 0.4, while Morton scored 1.0 and conceded 1.6, which increases the home side’s scoring potential. Season shares of matches over 1.5 are 69% for Dunfermline and 80% for Morton (average 74.5%), and for Over 2.5 seasonally 31% and 47%, but in the last 5 they are 80% and 60% respectively, which boosts the likelihood of three goals. A Poisson model with an expected total of 2.68 yields roughly a 75% probability of at least 2 goals and about 50% for at least 3 goals, therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5, which I recommend to play.

I choose the 1/1 scenario because Dunfermline led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and also won 4 of 5 (80%), which strongly suggests conversion of a half-time lead into a full-time victory. The hosts also have the edge in attacking quality: xG 1.29 versus 1.01 for Greenock Morton, on average 10.88 shots versus 7.47 and 3.38 shots on target versus 2.8, so Dunfermline creates more chances. In half-time observations the hosts scored on average 1.4 goals by the break in the last 5 matches versus 1.0 for the visitors, while season-to-date half-time values are similar (0.56 vs 0.53), which further supports a lead at the break for the hosts. Greenock Morton score more often after the break (on average 1.6 second-half goals seasonally) and have 67% of matches with both teams scoring versus 44% for the hosts, so I also keep draw and turnaround alternatives. Specifically I assigned 48% to 1/1 as the strongest signal, 15% to X/1 and 10% to 1/X as secondary options; the remaining scenarios are collectively unlikely.