Durango vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo: match statistics

Neither team has managed to win in its respective setting: Durango have lost 67% of their home matches, while Cruz Azul Hidalgo have drawn half of their away games and have not won any. The hosts average 0.67 goals in front of their home crowd, but the visitors are even less effective away from home, scoring just 0.25 goals per match and failing to score in 75% of such fixtures. Durango have the edge in possession, averaging 62% compared with 50%, as well as a better expected goals figure: 1.24 versus 1.42 for Cruz Azul Hidalgo. However, the visitors allow higher-quality chances, with an xG against of 1.79. The hosts’ defense is also a concern, conceding an average of 2 goals at home and keeping no clean sheets, although Cruz Azul’s poor away scoring record limits their chances of exploiting this weakness. Durango have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, making a low-scoring draw the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Cruz Azul Hidalgo average only 0.25 goals per match this season and have failed to score in 75% of their games. Durango concede an average of 1.00 goal and have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches, so the hosts are not entirely safe; however, the visitors’ poor season scoring record remains the key factor. BTTS has occurred in only 25% of Cruz Azul Hidalgo’s matches, compared with the league average of 56%, while 50% of their games featuring at least three goals ended with one side failing to score. The visitors’ last five matches look better, with 1.8 goals scored per game, but Durango have managed just 0.4 goals during this period, further increasing the risk of a No Goal outcome for one team. The hosts have a high season xG of 1.54, yet with BTTS landing in 75% of their matches, a Durango win to nil appears more likely than regular scoring from both teams.

Durango score an average of 2.25 goals at home, while Cruz Azul Hidalgo concede as many as 2.50 goals per away match, clearly strengthening the case for at least two goals. The 1.5 line was exceeded in 100% of Durango’s matches and 75% of Cruz Azul Hidalgo’s games, while both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 50% of their matches. Their attacking potential is also supported by the xG figures: 1.54 for the hosts and 1.42 for the visitors, with their opponents conceding 1.79 and 1.32 xG respectively. Durango’s recent form is weaker, as the team scored only 0.4 goals per match across five appearances, whereas Cruz Azul Hidalgo recorded 1.8 goals and conceded 2.0 over the same period. Therefore, the safest edge is Over 1.5, as the data supports a result around 2.70 goals but does not provide an equally strong basis for a confident Over 2.5 selection.

The strongest signal points to Cruz Azul Hidalgo leading at the break and maintaining their advantage through to the final whistle, as Durango were behind at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, scoring just 0.2 goals per game before the interval. Over the same period, the visitors averaged 0.6 goals before half-time, while the hosts conceded as many as 1.2, clearly increasing the risk of an early deficit for Durango. Across their last five matches, Durango scored only 0.4 goals per game and failed to win any of them, whereas Cruz Azul Hidalgo averaged 1.8 goals per match. Although the hosts have the higher seasonal xG, 1.54 compared with 1.42, their current finishing efficiency is well below that level, while the visitors are particularly dangerous after the break, averaging 1.2 goals. The 2/2 scenario is also supported by the fact that Cruz Azul Hidalgo concede an average of 1.2 goals after half-time, whereas Durango have scored just 0.2 goals across their last five second halves.