Mexico - Ascenso MXEstadio Francisco ZarcoData current as of October 28, 2026

Durango vs Morelia: match statistics

Reasoning:

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Durango vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

Durango plays Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game is scheduled for November 1, 2026. Venue: Estadio Francisco Zarco.

Recent form

Durango has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Morelia has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.

Scoring records

Durango scores 1.29 goals per game and allows 1.00. Morelia scores 1.79 and allows 1.14. Games in this league average 3.28 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 29% of Durango's games and 71% of Morelia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 36% and 57%, compared with league averages of 60% for BTTS and 64% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Morelia has the higher season xG average, 1.89 to 1.54 per game. Durango takes 12.4 shots per game, while Morelia takes 15.9.

First-half and second-half trends

Durango leads at halftime in 29% of its games and scores 0.79 goals per game after halftime. Morelia leads at halftime in 50% and scores 1.14 after halftime.

When the teams score

Durango's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (6 goals). For Morelia, it is minutes 46-60 (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Ascenso MX games average 3.28 goals. Both teams score in 60% of games, and 64% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.

Before kickoff

1X2 odds

(2.50)
(3.20)
(2.70)

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

1.29Goals scored / game1.79
DurangoMorelia
1Goals allowed / game1.14
DurangoMorelia
59%Average possession54%
DurangoMorelia
4.14Shots on target / game6.36
DurangoMorelia

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

12.36Shots per game15.93
DurangoMorelia
4.14Shots on target6.36
DurangoMorelia
10.4%Shot conversion11.2%
DurangoMorelia
59%Possession54%
DurangoMorelia
1.54xG for1.89
DurangoMorelia
1.37xG against1.25
DurangoMorelia

Shooting quality

Durango: BalancedMorelia: Attacking
DurangoMorelia
Accuracy (shots on target)33%40%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.120.12
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.310.28

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

Durango is 100% better for: last-5 form.

2 pts / game - Durango · 1 pts / game - Morelia

Durango
WWDWL
Season result split
43% W21% D36% L
Season (W-D-L)
6-3-5
1.50 pts / game · goal difference +4
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-1-1
2.00 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Last 5 at home
3-1-1
LDWWW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 2.4Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.84Opponent xG: 1.36BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%
Morelia
LDDLW
Season result split
57% W14% D29% L
Season (W-D-L)
8-2-4
1.86 pts / game · goal difference +9
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-2-2
1.00 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
4-1-2
Last 5 away
3-1-1
WWLDW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.2Goals conceded: 1.4xG: 2.18Opponent xG: 1.35BTTS: 100%Over 2.5: 60%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Morelia is 39% better for: goals scored per game.

1.29 goals / game - Durango · 1.79 goals / game - Morelia

Durango is 14% better for: goals allowed per game.

1 goals / game - Durango · 1.14 goals / game - Morelia

Durango scoring profile: strong

Durango scores in 64% of games (9 of 14 games), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 21% (3 of 14 games).

Morelia scoring profile: strong

Morelia scores in 93% of games (13 of 14 games), while Durango keeps a clean sheet in 50% (7 of 14 games).

18Goals scored (season)25
DurangoMorelia
14Goals conceded (season)16
DurangoMorelia
2.29Average goals per game2.93
DurangoMorelia
12Goals scored (last 5)6
DurangoMorelia
5Goals conceded (last 5)7
DurangoMorelia

How often they score at least...

64%1 goal93%
DurangoMorelia
29%2 goals43%
DurangoMorelia
14%3 goals21%
DurangoMorelia
14%4 goals21%
DurangoMorelia

How often they concede at least...

50%1 goal79%
DurangoMorelia
36%2 goals29%
DurangoMorelia
14%3 goals7%
DurangoMorelia
0%4 goals0%
DurangoMorelia

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

Goal patterns

7%BTTS at half-time7%
DurangoMorelia
0%BTTS in both halves0%
DurangoMorelia
29%Scored in both halves36%
DurangoMorelia

BTTS and goal count

21%Min. 3 goals and BTTS57%
DurangoMorelia
14%Min. 3 goals without BTTS0%
DurangoMorelia
40%BTTS - last 5100%
DurangoMorelia

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

1st half

57%Min. 1 goal before half-time86%
DurangoMorelia
29%Min. 2 goals before half-time21%
DurangoMorelia
7%Min. 3 goals before half-time0%
DurangoMorelia

2nd half

64%Min. 1 goal after half-time93%
DurangoMorelia
29%Min. 2 goals after half-time57%
DurangoMorelia
29%Min. 3 goals after half-time29%
DurangoMorelia

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Morelia is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.29 pts / game - Durango · 1.71 pts / game - Morelia

Durango - half-time state
29% leading43% draw29% trailing
Morelia - half-time state
50% leading21% draw29% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.29Points per game (1st half)1.71
DurangoMorelia
0.5Goals scored (1st half)0.64
DurangoMorelia
0.43Goals conceded (1st half)0.43
DurangoMorelia
0.93Average goals (1st half)1.07
DurangoMorelia
71%Clean sheet before half-time64%
DurangoMorelia
64%No goal before half-time43%
DurangoMorelia

After half-time (2nd half)

1.71Points per game (2nd half)1.57
DurangoMorelia
0.79Goals scored (2nd half)1.14
DurangoMorelia
0.57Goals conceded (2nd half)0.71
DurangoMorelia
1.36Average goals (2nd half)1.86
DurangoMorelia
79%Clean sheet after half-time43%
DurangoMorelia
43%No goal after half-time29%
DurangoMorelia

Durango - second-half results

43% W43% D14% L
18
Half-time points
7
Half-time goals
+1
Goal difference (1st half)
24
Second-half points
+3
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.29
PPG before half-time
Lead holding148%

Leads at halftime in 29% of games and wins 43%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.1

Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Morelia - second-half results

43% W29% D29% L
24
Half-time points
9
Half-time goals
+3
Goal difference (1st half)
22
Second-half points
+6
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.71
PPG before half-time
Lead holding114%

Leads at halftime in 50% of games and wins 57%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.3

Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Durango - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game2.201.60
Goals scored / game1.01.4
Goals allowed / game0.01.0
Average goals per game1.02.4
1 goal60%80%
2 goals40%60%
3 goals0%60%
Clean sheet100%60%
No goal40%20%
Goal difference+5+2
Half-time: 60% leading - 40% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 5
Morelia - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.801.00
Goals scored / game0.60.6
Goals allowed / game0.41.0
Average goals per game1.01.6
1 goal100%100%
2 goals0%60%
3 goals0%0%
Clean sheet60%20%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference+1-2
Half-time: 60% leading - 0% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 40% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 3

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

Durango
ScoredConceded
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
4
4
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.

Morelia
ScoredConceded
3
1
0-15
4
0
16-30
2
5
31-45
8
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
4
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.61
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
1.2 : 1.4
Estimated goal split
home : away
80%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
50%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-100%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
60%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
3%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 33 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

Durango

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.17
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.12
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-5.2 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.25
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.37
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
67%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
74%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.50
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.3
Late goals
22% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 17% come in the first quarter-hour.
22%

Morelia

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.64
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.01
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-3.8 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.10
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.11
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
133%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
59%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
-0.86
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.5
Late goals
20% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 12% come in the first quarter-hour.
20%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).

Teams vs league

DurangoLigaMorelia
Average goals per game▼ 2.293.28▼ 2.93
Both teams scored▼ 29%60%▲ 71%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▼ 36%64%▼ 57%
Clean sheets▲ 50%22%• 21%
Goal before half-time▼ 57%78%▲ 86%
Goal after half-time▼ 64%83%▲ 93%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.28
Average goals per game
60%
Both teams scored
64%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
22%
Clean sheets
1.93
Home goals / game
1.35
Away goals / game
+43%
Home attack advantage
+30%
Home defensive advantage
+18%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
78%
1 goal
42%
2 goals
13%
3 goals
4%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
83%
1 goal
59%
2 goals
33%
3 goals
14%
4 goals

FAQ

When do Durango and Morelia play?

Durango face Morelia on November 1, 2026 in Ascenso MX at Estadio Francisco Zarco. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What do the goal statistics show before Durango vs Morelia?

Durango score 1.29 goals per game on average and Morelia 1.79. The Ascenso MX average is 3.28 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 29% of Durango's matches and 71% of Morelia's.

What form are Durango and Morelia in?

Over the last 5 games Durango have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Morelia 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Durango vs Morelia?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.