Durban City vs Stellenbosch: match statistics

Durban City remain unbeaten at home, but both of their matches on home soil so far have ended in draws, with the hosts averaging just 0.5 goals scored. The home side clearly dominate chance creation, recording 21.5 shots, 8 shots on target and an xG of 2.46 per match. However, they convert just 2% of their attempts and have failed to score in 50% of their home fixtures. Stellenbosch average 1.5 goals scored away from home, but concede as many as 2.0 per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The visitors are more clinical, converting 18% of their shots into goals, but create considerably fewer chances than Durban City, with an average xG of 1.23 compared with 2.46. With both teams averaging 1 point per match across their last five games, the hosts’ superiority in open play should be offset by their poor finishing, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is moderately negative: both teams have recorded BTTS in 50% of their matches this season, but that figure has dropped to 40% for each side across their last five games. During this period, Durban City averaged just 0.8 goals, while Stellenbosch averaged 1.2, which reduces the probability of both teams finding the net. The hosts have also created few chances over the course of the season, averaging 0.82 xG, 6.0 shots and 2.5 shots on target per match. Although neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, the league has produced goals for both sides in only 47% of matches and has a high 69% clean-sheet rate, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The prevailing signals point to a moderate number of goals: the league average is only 2.38 goals, and just 34% of matches have gone over 2.5 goals. In their last five matches, Durban City scored and conceded 0.8 goals per game, while Stellenbosch averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded. The hosts’ attacking potential is limited by a season-long average of 0.82 xG and just 2.5 shots on target per match, although their latest xG of 1.56 suggests some room for improvement. Stellenbosch creates more, averaging 1.23 xG and 4.0 shots on target, but only 40% of its last five matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Both teams have so far recorded Over 3.5 goals in 50% of their matches, but the small sample size and current scoring figures primarily support the Under 3.5 goals option.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Durban City win, as Stellenbosch were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Durban City scored just 0.2 goals before half-time during this period. The hosts are clearly improving after the interval: across their last five matches, they conceded an average of only 0.2 goals in the second half and collected 1.8 points per game, whereas the visitors conceded 1.0 goal after the break and failed to win any of those five second halves. Home advantage also favors Durban City, who won 50% of such matches, while Stellenbosch have not recorded an away victory and concede an average of 2.0 goals. Although the visitors create more chances, averaging 8.5 shots compared with the hosts’ 6.0, their high rate of half-time draws and weaker second-half performances increase the likelihood of a Durban City turnaround after the interval.