Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Bylis Ballsh: match statistics

I back the home win. Egnatia sit 3rd and at home average 1.57 goals scored and only 0.79 conceded, while Bylis away average 0.79 scored and 1.71 conceded. The hosts create clearly more quality chances: Egnatia’s average xG is 1.63 versus the visitors’ 1.06, and average shots on target are 4.86 vs 2.21; home possession is 60% against Bylis’ 41%. Result statistics amplify the advantage — Egnatia win 50% of home matches and have only 14% losses, whereas Bylis have just 7% away wins and 57% losses; home clean sheets occur in 43% of games versus 21% for the visitors. Although Bylis have slightly better average points in the last 5 matches (1.4 vs 1.2), the gap in finishing efficiency, xG and game control favors Egnatia, so I favor a home victory with a fairly low, controlled scoreline.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 53% (Egnatia) and 50% (Bylis), above the league average of 45%, which provides an initial signal in favor of BTTS - Yes. In the xG model Egnatia records 1.41 xG_for with opponents at 1.40 xG_against, while Bylis has 1.06 xG_for with opponents at 1.13 xG_against, suggesting expected roughly 1.4 and 1.06 goals for home and away respectively. Additionally, Bylis concedes on average 1.71 goals per match this season versus 1.13 scored by Egnatia, while Bylis in the last 5 matches has 1.0 goals scored and last5 xG_for of 1.45, indicating they are creating chances recently. The counterpoint is Egnatia’s low BTTS in the last 5 matches — only 20% — and their recent average conceded of 0.8 goals in five matches, showing defensive improvement; this reduces confidence in the BTTS scenario. Overall, however, the xG balance and seasonal percentages lean me toward Yes, so I assess BTTS probability at 62% with 38% for No.

Estimated xG is 1.41 for Egnatia and 1.09 for Bylis, totaling around 2.50 expected goals. That is above the league average of 2.06 and aligns with season Over 1.5 indicators: hosts have 53% of matches >1.5, visitors 64%, which reinforces the over signal. Additionally, Egnatia averages 4.27 shots on target per match versus Bylis 2.21 and has a higher xG (1.41 vs 1.06), while Bylis concedes on average 1.71 goals, increasing the probability of at least two goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.50 yields about a 71% chance of more than 1.5 goals and about 46% for over 2.5; therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest pick.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I assign it a 34% probability, because Egnatia were level at the break in 73% of matches while Bylis led at half-time in only 7% of cases. The hosts have superior attacking metrics and form: average xG 1.41 versus Bylis’s 1.06, 4.27 shots on target per match versus 2.21 for the visitors, and seasonally 1.47 points per game for the hosts versus 0.57 for the opponents. The visitors’ defense is more vulnerable — Bylis concedes an average of 1.71 goals per match with an xG against of 1.40, while Egnatia concedes 1.00 goals and has an xG against of 1.13, so the hosts generate higher-quality chances. Additionally, in second halves the hosts average 0.87 goals while the guests average 0.57, and 87% of Egnatia’s appearances featured at least one goal after the break, which favors a turnaround from a half-time draw. Consequently, the probability distribution emphasizes X/1 (34%), X/X (24%) and X/2 (15%), with smaller chances for 1/1 (13%), 1/X (5%), 1/2 (2%) and a combined 7% for scenarios in which the visitors lead at half-time (2/1 1%, 2/X 2%, 2/2 4%).