Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Flamurtari: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Egnatia sits 3rd in the table with 15 wins this season versus Flamurtari's 5, and at home they win 53% of matches with a positive goal difference of +14 at their stadium. The hosts create more and better chances: on average 13.27 shots with 4.87 on target per match and a conversion rate of 13%, with average possession of 60%, while Flamurtari away averages 9.2 shots with 2.53 on target and a 9% conversion and only 0.8 goals per game. Egnatia defend solidly at home, conceding 0.73 goals on average and having xG against 0.90, whereas Flamurtari concede 1.27 goals away and have xG for 1.12 with xG against 1.61, indicating lower quality of chances created by the visitors. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 5 goals each, but Egnatia conceded 4 goals and averaged 1.2 points per game while Flamurtari conceded 6 goals and averaged 1.0 point per game, which confirms the hosts' advantage particularly defensively.

I rate the chances for BTTS - Yes as higher because Egnatia has BTTS in 56% of matches this season and Flamurtari in 53%, both above the league average of 45%. Clean sheets are rare: the home side kept one in 19% of games (meaning they concede in ~81% of matches) and the visitors in 20% (concede in ~80% of matches), which increases the probability of both teams scoring. xG stats show Egnatia generates 1.31 xG while conceding 1.61 to Flamurtari, and Flamurtari creates 1.12 xG while conceding 1.16 to Egnatia, suggesting chances for goals at both ends. In the last 5 matches Flamurtari had BTTS in 80% (4/5) and Egnatia in 40% (2/5); both teams scored 5 goals in those 5 games, with Egnatia conceding 4 and Flamurtari 6, therefore I choose 'yes' as the stronger signal.

The xG- and defense-based model yields a clear result: Egnatia xG_for 1.31 vs Flamurtari xG_for 1.12, with xG_against Flamurtari 1.61 and Egnatia 1.16, which after averaging produces 1.46 goals for Egnatia and 1.14 for Flamurtari (total 2.60). A Poisson distribution for a mean of 2.60 indicates probability of >=2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈73%, >=3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈48% and >=4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈26%. Seasonally, Over 1.5 occurred in 69% of Egnatia’s matches and 60% of Flamurtari’s, while BTTS was 56% and 53%; additionally Egnatia records 3.69 SoT with a 10% conversion and Flamurtari 2.53 SoT with a 9% conversion, which reinforces the goal signal. At the same time seasonal Over 2.5 is weaker (44% for Egnatia vs 27% for Flamurtari, average ~35%) and Over 3.5 only 13% for both, so I downweight the Poisson estimates for higher lines. As a result the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (selection: Over, line 1.5), with a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (46%/54%) and low probability for Over 3.5 (20%/80%).

A half-time draw appears most likely: the home team were level at the break in 44% of matches (7 occurrences), and the visitors in 47% (7 occurrences), giving roughly a 46% chance of a draw HT. A draw on full-time also has strong statistical backing — the home side draw 38% of matches, the away side 33%, and both teams have low win percentages (19% and 13%), so X/X receives the single largest weight at 23%. The home team have better offensive numbers: average xG 1.31 versus 1.12 for their opponents and 0.5 goals by half-time compared to 0.27 for rivals, so when they hold a lead at the break (occurring in 25% of their games) the 1/1 scenario is justified and was assigned 15%. The visitors record higher xG against (1.61) and a lower average of shots on target per game (2.53 vs 3.69), which increases their chance of scoring, but the overall match profile (high share of draws and low win rates) leads to X/X being identified as the strongest signal.