Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vora: match statistics

Egnatia is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the table and have scored 38 goals this season versus Vora’s 26, with 15 home wins compared to the visitors’ 7 away wins. At home Egnatia averages 1.56 goals scored and concedes 0.81 per match, has a 50% home win rate and keeps a clean sheet in 44% of home games; Vora on the road scores 0.75 and concedes 1.31, winning only 19% of away matches. Egnatia generates 1.62 xG and 4.75 shots on target per home match with average possession of 60%, while Vora posts 1.06 xG, 2.31 shots on target and 46% possession away; Vora’s lower finishing rate (9% conversion) versus Egnatia’s 12% reduces their realistic goal threat. Over the last 5 matches Egnatia has scored 6 goals and averages 1.0 point per game, Vora has scored 4 and averages 1.2 points, but the season-long goal and win differential (38–26 goals and 15–7 wins) favors the hosts. Therefore I forecast a home win probability of ~65%, draw 20% and Vora win 15%.

I pick 'BTTS - Yes' — Egnatia has BTTS 38% this season, Vora 50%, league average 46%; in the last 5 matches Egnatia's BTTS was 60% vs Vora's 40%, increasing likelihood of goals at both ends. In their last 5 matches Egnatia averaged xG 1.58 and scored 6 goals (1.2 per match), while Vora had xG 1.12 and 4 goals (0.8 per match), so the home side creates more chances. Vora concedes 1.31 goals per match season-to-date with xG against of 1.69, and Egnatia registers 3.88 shots on target per game, so the hosts have a realistic chance to breach Vora's defense. Conversely, Vora's season xG_for is 1.06 and they average 0.75 goals, while Egnatia conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches (7 conceded), giving Vora a realistic scoring opportunity. Considering 3.88 vs 2.31 shots on target, recent xG numbers and the visitors' low clean sheet rate (13%), I estimate BTTS around 70% vs 30% for No Goal.

Based on average xG I estimated a total expected output of 2.66 goals: Egnatia 1.46 (xG_for 1.23 vs xG_against Vora 1.69 → average 1.46) and Vora 1.20 (xG_for 1.06 vs xG_against Egnatia 1.34 → average 1.20). A Poisson model with parameter 2.66 gives roughly a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals (at least 2 goals) and about a 50% probability of Over 2.5 goals. Match-level data supports this forecast: Egnatia averages 3.88 shots on target and has a seasonal goals average of 0.88 with xG 1.23, while Vora concedes 1.31 goals seasonally with xG_against 1.69, which increases the likelihood of goal-scoring situations. Seasonal Over2.5 rates are lower (Egnatia 25%, Vora 31%) and Over3.5 is rare (19% vs 0%), so the strongest and most value-driven signal from the data is the over at the 1.5 line.

At half-time a draw is more likely: the home side were level at the break in 50% of their matches, and the visitors in 44%, indicating a high prevalence of half-time draws. Nevertheless, Egnatia show superior quality metrics – home xG 1.23 versus Vory’s 1.06, lower opponent xG conceded 1.34 vs 1.69 and more on-target shots 3.88 vs 2.31, so they create more opportunities. In the last five matches the home team scored an average of 1.4 goals after the break compared to 0.6 for the visitors, and the home side led at the break in 31% of games and, when leading, went on to win in 69% of cases. Therefore the scenario draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1) is assessed as the strongest at 23% probability; the alternative 1/1 is 21%, and a maintained draw (X/X) 18%.