El Geish vs Kahraba Ismailia: match statistics

El Geish enters the match in better form: in the last 5 fixtures they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (W D W W L) and average 2.0 points per game, while Kahraba have not won in their last 5 (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss) and average 0.8 points per game. In those five matches El Geish scored 5 and conceded 3, whereas Kahraba scored 4 and conceded 6, indicating a short-term advantage for the hosts in attacking efficiency and defense. At home El Geish averages 12.58 shots per game, including 3.42 on target, records 50% possession and 0.83 goals per match with xG 1.36 (xG against 1.29), which points to better control and defensive solidity. Kahraba have a higher shot conversion (12% vs 7%), average 1.1 goals away but concede 1.2 goals on the road and have conceded 43 goals in the season overall, indicating defensive issues. Taking into account the form advantage, superior home xG (1.36 vs 1.14) and a higher volume of created chances (12.58 vs 8.9 shots), I predict a home victory; probabilities estimated at 60% for El Geish, 25% draw and 15% for Kahraba.

I favor BTTS - Yes at ~60% probability because El Geish posts a seasonal home BTTS rate of 80% while Kahraba has 50% for the season, producing a strong seasonal signal for goals from both sides. Both teams show similar offensive xG: El Geish 1.19 vs Kahraba 1.14, while also conceding high expected chances (xG against 1.6 and 1.55), which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Counter signals include recent form over the last 5 matches: El Geish has BTTS in only 20% and concedes on average 0.6 goals across those five, whereas Kahraba has BTTS 80% and concedes 1.2 goals, adding some uncertainty. Additionally the league exhibits a high clean sheet rate of 69%, and individually Kahraba records clean sheets in 30% of matches versus just 7% for El Geish, which partially limits confidence in the pick. For these reasons I assign a moderate 60% probability to BTTS - Yes.

Based on xG I estimate total expected goals at approximately 2.74: I calculated expected xG for the home side as (1.19 + 1.55)/2 = 1.37 and for the away side as (1.14 + 1.60)/2 = 1.37, giving expected_goals_total = 2.74. Seasonally the home team had Over 1.5 in 80% of matches, the away team in 70%, yielding an average around 75% which aligns with a Poisson-based P(over 1.5) ≈ 76%. For the 2.5 line, homes have 60% of matches above that threshold, guests 40% (average 50%), and the xG model translates to P(over 2.5) ≈ 52%, so the edge for Over 2.5 is marginal. The 3.5 line is a weaker signal — seasonally 33% vs 20% (average ~26%), and xG gives only about a 30% chance for Over 3.5, so Under 3.5 (~70%) is safer. Considering also the high share of matches with Both Teams To Score (BTTS: home 80%, away 50%) and the shots on target figures (3.27 vs 3.30), the strongest signal from the data is a play on Over 1.5.

At half-time a draw is most likely: the home side have been level at the break in 47% of matches, the visitors in 60%, and first-half goals average only 0.27 (El Geish) and 0.30 (Kahraba), indicating a low-scoring 45 minutes. In the second half the visitors are favored – the hosts concede an average of 1.47 goals after the break versus 0.80 conceded by the visitors, and the visitors win second halves in 40% of cases compared to 0% for the hosts. Seasonally the visitors are also more efficient in points: 1.5 points per match for the visitors versus 0.33 for the hosts, and the visitors’ away win percentage is 40% vs 0% for the hosts, which boosts the visitors’ advantage at full-time. Additionally the hosts are vulnerable late on (they have conceded 10 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 4 conceded by the visitors), so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a visitors’ victory at full-time (X/2), which I estimate at 32% (total half-time draws: 58%).