El Paso Locomotive vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds: match statistics

El Paso Locomotive come into this match after winning 4 of their last 5 fixtures, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 2 in that period. Pittsburgh Riverhounds have also put together a solid run (3 wins, a draw and a defeat), but they have scored only 5 goals in their last five matches. The hosts create significantly more danger at home, averaging 14.11 shots and 5.33 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.63, while the visitors average 8 shots, 3 on target and an xG of 1.06 away from home. Pittsburgh’s away defensive numbers are stronger, as they concede an average of 1.10 goals and keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches, but they fail to score in as many as 30% of those fixtures. El Paso have maintained their attacking efficiency at home, scoring in every home match, so the superior quality of chances created and excellent current form give the hosts a slight edge.

Both teams have notably low seasonal BTTS figures: El Paso at 36% and Pittsburgh at 40%, compared with the league average of 53%. Recent form supports the scenario in which at least one side fails to score even more strongly, as El Paso recorded BTTS in 0% of its last five matches, while Pittsburgh did so in just 20%. The defenses have been very solid lately: each team conceded only 2 goals in five matches, averaging 0.4 per game. Pittsburgh kept a clean sheet in 40% of its matches this season, while its average goals scored stands at only 1.0, limiting the visitors’ chances of breaking through the hosts’ well-organized defense. El Paso creates more, with an average xG of 1.31 and 3.82 shots on target per match compared with Pittsburgh’s 1.06 xG and 3.0 shots on target, but this does not change the strong signal for BTTS - No.

The profile of both teams points to a tight match with a limited number of chances: El Paso score an average of 1.27 goals, while Pittsburgh average 1.00 goal per game. The hosts concede just 0.91 goals per match, whereas the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their appearances, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. In their last five matches, each team conceded just 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game, while matches featuring Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 20% of cases for both sides. Additionally, 73% of El Paso’s matches and as many as 90% of Pittsburgh’s fixtures ended with no more than three goals, making Under 3.5 the market best supported by the data.

The strongest scenario is El Paso leading at the break and the home side securing victory, as they have won the first half in 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2. During the same period, Pittsburgh held a half-time lead in 40% of matches, while across the entire season they went into the break trailing in as many as 40% of games. El Paso also have the stronger overall season record: they win 55% of their matches compared with 40% for their opponents, scoring an average of 1.27 goals and conceding 0.91, while the visitors record figures of 1.00 and 1.10 respectively. The home side’s advantage in the quality of chances created is also reflected in the xG figures, standing at 1.31 compared with Pittsburgh’s 1.06, as well as in the average number of shots on target: 3.82 versus 3.00. A half-time draw remains a significant alternative, as El Paso were level after 45 minutes in 64% of their league matches, but their very strong recent form in opening periods supports the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.