Elana Toruń vs Lipno Stęszew: match statistics

I predict an away win ('2'), as Lipno Stęszew clearly outperforms Elana in the last 5 matches: 3 wins and 2 losses vs. 0 wins and 5 losses. Elana scored only 2 goals in those 5 fixtures (0.4 goals per game) and conceded 19 (3.8 per game), while Lipno scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 11 (2.2 per game). The difference in attack (2.0 vs 0.4 goals per game) and defense (2.2 vs 3.8 goals conceded per game) is decisive and favors the visitors. Additionally, Lipno has 1.8 points per game in the last 5 matches compared to Elana's 0 points, confirming the visitors' greater efficiency and stability. Therefore I assign a 65% probability to their win, 20% to a draw and 15% to a home upset.

In the last 5 matches Elana scored a total of 2 goals (0.4 per game) and conceded 19 goals (3.8 per game), while Lipno scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 11 goals (2.2 per game). Form is divergent: Elana has 5 losses in 5 (lllll), Lipno has 3 wins in 5 (lwlww), which increases the likelihood of away goals. xG shows 0.96 xG for Elana and 1.55 xG for Lipno with xG against 2.59 for Elana and 1.86 for Lipno, meaning Elana allows substantially more opponent chances. Although BTTS in Elana’s last 5 is 20% and Lipno’s is 40%, Elana’s weak defense (3.8 conceded) and Lipno’s effective attack (10 goals) make an away goal almost certain, and Elana with 0.96 xG has a realistic chance to score. I therefore tip BTTS - Yes as more probable, assigning 70% vs 30% for No.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows a strong tendency toward high scores: Elana scored a total of 2 goals in those five matches (0.4 per match) and conceded 19 goals (3.8 per match), while Lipno scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and conceded 11 goals (2.2 per match). In xG terms the home side has average xG = 0.96, and Lipno has xG against = 1.86, which by simple averaging yields expected home goals ≈1.41; similarly xG Lipno = 1.55 versus xG against Elana = 2.59 gives expected away goals ≈2.07, total ≈3.48. With this expected total of 3.48, applying a Poisson distribution estimates about an 86% chance for Over 1.5 goals, about 68% for Over 2.5 goals and about 46% for Over 3.5 goals, indicating a high probability of at least two goals. Additionally 100% of Elana’s last 5 matches and 80% of Lipno’s last 5 matches finished over 2.5 goals, which reinforces the case for Over; the low percentage of Elana matches with both teams scoring (20%) suggests goals may be unevenly distributed, but still exceed low lines. Therefore the strongest data signal is a pick on the Over at the 1.5 line.

Elana Toruń has averaged 0.4 goals scored and 3.8 conceded in the last 5 matches, losing 5 of 5 matches (100%) and trailing at the break in 5 of 5 (100%). Lipno Stęszew won 3 of 5 (60%), averages 2.0 goals per match and 0.6 by halftime, and scores an average of 1.4 goals after the break. In first halves Elana conceded an average of 2.0 goals while Lipno conceded 1.0, and both teams saw goals by halftime in 5 of 5 cases (100% HT over 0.5). Based on these figures the strongest signal indicates the visitors will take the lead at the break and maintain the lead after the break. Therefore I recommend HT/FT 2/2 as the most reliable pick.