Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzędz: match statistics

Unia Swarzędz come into this fixture in better current form: they have collected 6 points from their last five matches, while Elana Toruń have managed only 2, losing three consecutive games before recording two draws. The hosts have conceded as many as 15 goals in their last five appearances, while their average xG against at home stands at 1.88, highlighting genuine defensive problems. Away from home, Unia create chances worth an average of 1.88 xG and record 6 shots on target per match—twice as many as Elana at their own stadium. Both teams score and concede 1.5 goals per game in their respective home or away fixtures, but the visitors allow opponents just 0.89 xG, significantly fewer than the hosts. Elana have drawn both of their home matches so far, so a stalemate remains possible; however, Unia’s edge in defensive quality and recent form points towards an away win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the recent form of both teams, as this scenario occurred in 60% of their last five matches. During this period, Elana conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game, while Unia conceded 2.2, clearly increasing the chances of both sides finding space in attack. Unia have recently scored an average of 1.8 goals and created chances worth 2.12 xG, while Elana’s defense allowed opponents 2.34 xG. Although the hosts scored only 1.0 goal per game across their last five outings, Unia have not kept a clean sheet once this season and conceded 11 goals in their last five matches. An additional argument is the league’s BTTS frequency of 67%, making a goal for both teams more likely than a BTTS - No scenario, in which at least one team fails to score.

Elana’s last five matches produced an average of 4.0 goals, with the team scoring 1.0 and conceding as many as 3.0 goals per game. Over the same period, Unia scored 1.8 goals and conceded 2.2, while matches involving both teams went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases. The xG model also points to an attacking advantage for the visitors: Unia created an average of 2.12 xG, while Elana allowed opponents 2.34 xG. However, the hosts recorded just 1.09 xG across their last five appearances, so the safest signal is Over 1.5 goals rather than the more aggressive 2.5 line. Further support comes from the league average of 3.52 goals per match and the fact that neither side has kept a clean sheet in the available season data.

Unia Swarzędz have a clearly stronger first-half profile: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 40% of games, scoring an average of 1.0 goal, while Elana were trailing at half-time in 60% of matches and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The hosts have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 1.0 goal per game and conceding 3.0, whereas Unia are averaging 1.8 goals scored per match. Across the season, Elana have so far lost 100% of their matches, conceding an average of 3.0 goals, while the visitors have won 50% of their games and are scoring an average of 1.5 goals. Although the hosts have generated a high average xG of 3.17 and record 10 shots on target per match, this has not yet translated into goals. Therefore, the most likely scenario is an Unia lead at the break followed by a victory maintained through full-time (HT/FT: 2/2).