Elgin City vs Clyde: match statistics

Statistical analysis indicates balanced chances for both teams, with a slight edge for the draw scenario. Elgin City shows solid home form with 47% of matches won at home and a goal difference of +4, but their last five overall matches (1.4 PPG) indicate a dip in form. Clyde is characterized by a very high away draw percentage (53%), which, combined with an average of 1.73 goals scored and only 1.07 conceded on the road, makes them a tough opponent. Both teams have similar xG figures (1.24 vs 1.35 for the visitors), confirming an evenly matched offensive level. Clyde's poor form in the last five matches (0.8 PPG, series l-d-l-w-l) may somewhat undermine their position, but their tendency to draw away and defensive solidity (27% clean sheets) point towards a points share. Considering all factors, a draw appears to be the most probable outcome of this encounter.

Seasonal data strongly supports BTTS: Elgin have a 67% BTTS match rate, with Clyde at a high 73%, alongside average goals scored of 1.47 vs 1.73. Both sides rarely keep a clean sheet (CS: Elgin 33%, Clyde 27%) and also rarely fail to score (FTS: 20% and 13%), which statistically favors a goal exchange. Creation metrics are stable for both (xG for approx. 1.35) with shots on target around ~5 per match, increasing the likelihood of at least one goal for each team. Clyde's last 5 matches show 100% BTTS and very poor defense (2.0 goals conceded/match, 10 GA), boosting Elgin's scoring chances. Although Elgin have only a 40% BTTS rate in their last 5, their averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded still indicate a realistic chance for both teams to find the net. Therefore, the most probable pick is BTTS: Yes.

The goal-scoring model based on average goals and xG yields a total of approximately 2.75 goals (Elgin 1.45, Clyde 1.30), favouring a scenario with at least 2 goals. Elgin have 73% of matches with over 1.5, and Clyde as many as 87%, alongside a high BTTS rate (67% and 73%), supporting the risk of an end-to-end encounter. The shot profile is offensive on both sides (SOT: 5.27 vs 5.0; shots: 9.73 vs 10.2) and solid conversion (15% and 17%), which increases the likelihood of chances being taken. Additionally, in the last 5 matches, Clyde have conceded an average of 2.0 goals, boosting expectations for the hosts. The 2.5 line is closer to a coin-flip, whereas over 1.5 carries the strongest and most stable signal in the data.

The strongest signal for the half-time result is a draw: both teams have identical drawingAtHTPercentage (47%) and similar first-half profiles (AVGHT: Elgin 1.0, Clyde 1.4) coupled with low BTTS in the first half (20–27%). For the full-time result, Elgin holds a slight edge: higher PPG (1.6 vs 1.33) and a higher win% (40% vs 27%). The last 5 matches reinforce this picture (PPG 1.4 vs 0.8, with Clyde conceding an average of 2.0 goals). Clyde is a very 'draw-prone' team (drawPercentage 53%), which increases the probability of the X/X outcome, but their weaker defense in recent outings heightens the risk of a turnaround after the break. The second half is statistically more goal-rich (AVG_2hg 1.53 and 1.4; over0.5_2hg at 73% for both), favoring a scenario where the game opens up after half-time to the hosts' benefit. Therefore, the most probable Half-Time/Full-Time pattern is a draw at the break and an Elgin win at full-time (X/1).