Emmen vs AZ II: match statistics

Emmen come into this match in clearly better form: they have collected 10 points from their last five games, recording 3 wins, a draw and a defeat, while AZ II have managed just 3 points from a single victory. The hosts have scored 6 goals in this period, compared with only 2 for AZ II, who have conceded as many as 11 goals across their five matches. In their only home game so far, Emmen secured a win, kept a clean sheet and created chances worth an average of 1.50 xG, registering 15 shots, including 7 on target. AZ II sit 17th and opened the season with a 0:1 defeat; combined with four losses in their last five appearances, this strongly points to a home advantage. A controlled Emmen victory is the most likely outcome, although the limited number of home and away matches played so far leaves some room for a draw.

The strongest signal against BTTS - Yes is AZ II’s attack: the team has scored only 2 goals in its last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS occurred in 0% of those fixtures. Emmen have also been far from convincing at both ends of the pitch, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last five appearances, with BTTS landing in 40% of matches. The hosts should have a good chance of scoring, as AZ II have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches—an average of 2.2 per game—with an xG conceded figure of 1.85. However, the visitors create chances worth an average xG of 2.01, which increases the risk of them scoring despite their poor finishing. Even so, their actual goal output remains too low for BTTS - Yes to be considered the main scenario. The high 76% BTTS rate across the league limits confidence in the pick, but AZ II’s current attacking form more strongly supports the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

In their last five matches, Emmen averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while AZ II scored just 0.4 goals but allowed opponents as many as 2.2. The visitors’ attacking potential looks better than their finishing, as their average xG over the five games stands at 2.01, while Emmen allows opponents 1.50 xG. The hosts create an average of 1.51 xG, compared with 1.85 xG conceded by AZ II, supporting a prediction of at least one goal for each side or a clear Emmen advantage. The Eerste Divisie is a very high-scoring league: the average is 3.24 goals per match, and 65% of games go Over 2.5 goals. The strongest signal, however, remains Over 1.5 goals, as the weak defenses and a projected total of 2.85 goals clearly reduce the likelihood of a game finishing with no more than one goal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Emmen win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, while AZ II were trailing at the break in 3 of their 5 games. During this period, both teams averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time, limiting the likelihood of an early decision. After the interval, Emmen averaged 1.0 goal and won the second half in 80% of their recent matches, whereas AZ II scored just 0.2 goals and conceded 1.4. The hosts’ advantage is also supported by their overall-match form: Emmen won 60% of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points, while AZ II lost 80% and collected just 0.6 points per match.