Encarnación vs Benjamin Aceval: match statistics

Benjamin Aceval sit 4th, while Encarnación are only 15th, and over the course of the season the visitors have won 10 matches compared with 4 victories for the hosts. Away from home, Benjamin Aceval average 1.8 goals per match with a 16% shot conversion rate, while Encarnación score just 1.0 goal at home and fail to find the net in 40% of their appearances. The hosts have a clear defensive issue at their own stadium, conceding an average of 1.9 goals and keeping a clean sheet in just 10% of matches. However, both teams are in poor current form: Encarnación have scored 3 goals in their last five matches, while Benjamin Aceval have lost 4 of their last 5 games, meaning the risk of a draw remains significant. Despite this dip in form, the visitors' away record, featuring a 50% win rate and a positive goal difference of +5, gives them the better chance of ending their poor run.

The BTTS signal is weakened primarily by Encarnación’s current form: in their last 5 matches, the team scored only 3 goals, averaging 0.6 per game, while BTTS occurred in just 20% of those fixtures. The hosts failed to score in 20% of their season matches and also kept a clean sheet in 40% of their appearances, increasing the likelihood that Benjamin Aceval will fail to score. The visitors have stronger season-long attacking numbers, averaging 1.8 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.4, but their recent average is only 1.0 goal per match. Benjamin Aceval have conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game recently, so a home goal is a realistic possibility; however, their low xG over the last five games, at 0.86, does not provide a sufficiently strong basis for backing BTTS - Yes. The visitors’ season BTTS rate stands at 70%, yet Encarnación’s weaker attacking form and their recent BTTS rate slightly favor the scenario in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS - No.

The strongest signal supports the Under 3.5 goals line: in 80% of both teams’ matches this season, no more than 3 goals were scored. Encarnación has gone Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of its matches and has scored just 3 goals in its last five appearances, averaging 0.6 per game. Benjamin Aceval is more frequently involved in open matches, with 60% of its games going Over 2.5 goals, but only 20% going Over 3.5. The visitors’ attacking potential remains notable, with an xG of 1.67 over their last five matches and 2.0 goals conceded per game, which is why the projected total of 2.46 goals does not support the low Under 1.5 line. At the same time, the home side’s weaker recent finishing and the consistent seasonal trends limit the likelihood of four or more goals.

Benjamin Aceval has a clear case for taking control of the match after the break: over the course of the season, they average 1.30 goals in second halves compared with Encarnación’s 0.78, and they have won the second half in 80% of their matches. However, the hosts are a cautious side before the break, drawing at half-time in 67% of matches and conceding just 0.44 goals on average, which makes the scenario of the visitors leading at the break far from risk-free. Encarnación’s recent form has been very poor offensively, as they have failed to score before half-time in each of their last five appearances and have averaged just 0.60 goals per match overall. The visitors are also going through a weaker spell, but their season average of 1.80 goals scored and 16% shot conversion rate both exceed the hosts’ figures of 1.40 goals and 11%, respectively. The most likely scenario, therefore, remains one in which Benjamin Aceval takes a narrow lead before the break and maintains it until the end of the match.