Entebbe UPPC vs BUL: match statistics

Entebbe UPPC holds a slight table advantage (6th vs 8th) and more wins this season (13 vs 9); at home the hosts score on average 0.79 goals and concede only 0.57 per match. At home they produce higher expected goals (xG 1.66) compared to opponents’ away xG (1.41) and in the last five matches they average 1.6 points per game, while BUL averages 1.2 points per game. BUL is, however, more efficient in attack: on average 4.23 shots on target away versus 3.0 for the hosts and a higher conversion 10% vs 6%, translating to 0.93 goals away. Crucially, the hosts keep 57% clean sheets at home with a concurrent 50% share of home matches without conceding, while BUL fails to score in only 21% of their away trips, which increases the risk of a low-scoring draw; nonetheless, considering Entebbe’s superior xG and defensive stability I give them a marginal edge.

Statistical analysis favors a 'No' scenario — in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 20% of cases (1 in 5). Season BTTS rates are 47% for Entebbe and 43% for BUL, while the league average is just 38%, and the competition features a very high clean sheet rate of 78%, which supports one-sided scoreless outcomes. In form over the last 5 games the home side averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, the visitors 0.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, with a league goals average of 2.06 per match — indicating low offensive efficiency for both teams. Although Entebbe produces higher xG (1.80 vs 1.41), attempts more shots (13.86 vs 9.46) and has similar conversion (9% vs 10%), the high clean sheet rates (40% for home, 43% for away) combined with poor recent finishing make BTTS less likely. Based on this I assign a 70% probability to No BTTS and 30% to BTTS as the most justified forecast.

Based on both teams' xG I estimate 1.54 goals for Entebbe (home attack xG 1.80 vs away defense 1.27) and 1.37 goals for BUL (away attack xG 1.41 vs home defense 1.33), totaling 2.91 expected goals. From a Poisson distribution this corresponds to roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, 56% for Over 2.5 and 33% for Over 3.5. Season figures show Entebbe has 60% of matches Over 1.5 and 40% Over 2.5, while BUL has 57% and 21% respectively, with both teams having a high share of matches with at least one goal scored (home 73%, away 93%). The hosts average 13.86 shots and 4.79 shots on target per match, the visitors 9.46 and 4.23, with conversion rates of 9% versus 10%, confirming chances creation. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is backing Over 1.5, as xG 2.91, the higher shot volumes and the seasonal Over 1.5 rates (60% vs 57%) provide the most robust, consistent argument for this line.

Half-time statistics show frequent draws: the home side were level at the break in 43% of matches and the away side in 57%, although in the last five fixtures the hosts led at the break in 60% of cases, which gives a mixed signal. The hosts create more chances (xG 1.80 versus the visitors' 1.41 and on average 13.86 shots versus 9.46), translating into 0.86 goals for the hosts by half-time versus 0.43 for the visitors. The visitors, however, score more often after the break and shoot more in the second half (an average of 0.50 goals after the break versus 0.36 for the hosts) and have a higher season points return (1.36 vs 1.20), so they are capable of staging a turnaround. Combining the high share of half-time draws (43–57%), the hosts' higher xG (1.80) with lower conversion (9%), and the visitors' ability to score after the break, the most likely outcome appears to be draw at half-time and draw at full-time (X/X). I therefore assign this scenario a 22% probability; second on the list is 1/1 at 19% (hosts often lead at the break), and 2/2 is treated as a plausible counter-scenario at 12%.