Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk: match statistics

Shakhtar Donetsk lead the table and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 15 goals in that period—significantly more than Epitsentr’s 9. The visitors also have a better points return from their last five games: 2.4 points per match compared with the hosts’ 1.8. Epitsentr have nevertheless remained unbeaten in their last five outings, and in their only home match they won 3:0, recording 60% possession, 6 shots on target and an xG of 1.31. The hosts have conceded just 5 goals in their last five matches, the same as Shakhtar, but their three draws in that period point to a lower ability to decide closely contested games. Shakhtar’s greater consistency in securing wins and superior attacking efficiency favor an away victory, although Epitsentr’s home advantage increases the draw risk.

The latest form of both teams points toward goals at both ends: BTTS landed in 60% of each side’s last five matches. Epitsentr averaged 1.8 goals during this period, while Shakhtar scored as many as 3.0, with both teams conceding 1.0 goal per match. The hosts allowed opponents an average xG of 1.62, which clearly strengthens the chances of the highly effective Shakhtar attack, whose average xG stands at 1.58. At the same time, Epitsentr generated 1.27 xG and averaged 9 shots on target across their last five appearances, giving them a realistic chance of scoring at least once despite Shakhtar allowing opponents 1.09 xG. The league-wide BTTS rate is only 43%, so the edge toward “Yes” is not substantial; however, the current figures for both teams provide stronger grounds for it.

The latest results point to a match with goalscoring potential: Epitsentr averaged 1.8 goals in their last five matches, while Szachtar averaged as many as 3.0. The visitors created an average of 1.58 xG, whereas the hosts allowed opponents 1.62 xG, which favors Szachtar scoring at least one or two goals. In the teams’ last five matches, 60% and 80% respectively featured at least three goals, while each side conceded an average of just 1.0 goal, making the Over 2.5 line more evenly balanced. The Over 1.5 goals market, however, is more strongly supported by the projected total of 2.90 goals and the attacking averages of both teams. The hosts’ season data is based on a very small sample, so greater weight should be given to the five-match form and xG figures.

Shakhtar Donetsk are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Epitsentr have recorded 2 wins and as many as 3 draws. Over this period, the visitors have averaged 3.0 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded per match, compared with the hosts’ respective figures of 1.8 and 1.0. The first half is particularly relevant for the HT/FT market: Shakhtar have been leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches and have averaged 1.2 goals in the opening 45 minutes, whereas Epitsentr have scored just 0.2 goals and been level at half-time in 60% of their games. Both teams remain attacking after the break, but the visitors average 1.8 goals in second halves, which should enable them to maintain or extend an early lead. The most likely scenario is therefore Shakhtar leading at half-time and securing victory at the final whistle.