Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced competition favoring a draw scenario. Esteghlal Khuzestan presents stable home form with 40% draws and only 30% losses at their own stadium, earning 1.2 points per match in their last five games. Fajr Sepasi demonstrates better offensive efficiency (18% shot conversion versus 9% for the hosts); however, their away form is unstable with 50% draws and only 20% away victories. A key factor is the xG comparison (0.76 vs 0.92 for the hosts), suggesting a slight qualitative advantage for Esteghlal, but the low scoring efficiency of both teams (0.8 vs 1.1 goals per match) supports a low-scoring outcome. Given both teams' tendency to draw and balanced ball possession (49% for both), a sharing of points is the most probable scenario.
Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Esteghlal Khuzestan played against Fajr Sepasi in Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran). The game was played on February 13, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Esteghlal Khuzestan has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Fajr Sepasi has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 1.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores 0.70 goals per game and allows 1.00. Fajr Sepasi scores 1.15 and allows 1.20. Games in this league average 1.75 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 35% of Esteghlal Khuzestan's games and 60% of Fajr Sepasi's. The Over 2.5 rates are 20% and 50%, compared with league averages of 37% for BTTS and 27% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Esteghlal Khuzestan has the higher season xG average, 0.86 to 0.76 per game. Esteghlal Khuzestan takes 2.9 shots per game, while Fajr Sepasi takes 0.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Esteghlal Khuzestan leads at halftime in 30% of its games and scores 0.35 goals per game after halftime. Fajr Sepasi leads at halftime in 20% and scores 0.70 after halftime.
When the teams score
Esteghlal Khuzestan's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (4 goals). For Fajr Sepasi, it is minutes 31-45+ (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Persian Gulf Pro League games average 1.75 goals. Both teams score in 37% of games, and 27% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced competition favoring a draw scenario. Esteghlal Khuzestan presents stable home form with 40% draws and only 30% losses at their own stadium, earning 1.2 points per match in their last five games. Fajr Sepasi demonstrates better offensive efficiency (18% shot conversion versus 9% for the hosts); however, their away form is unstable with 50% draws and only 20% away victories. A key factor is the xG comparison (0.76 vs 0.92 for the hosts), suggesting a slight qualitative advantage for Esteghlal, but the low scoring efficiency of both teams (0.8 vs 1.1 goals per match) supports a low-scoring outcome. Given both teams' tendency to draw and balanced ball possession (49% for both), a sharing of points is the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Esteghlal Khuzestan | Fajr Sepasi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | -46% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.30 | 1.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.82 | 0.00 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Fajr Sepasi is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1.8 pts / game - Fajr Sepasi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fajr Sepasi is 64% better for: goals scored per game.
0.7 goals / game - Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1.15 goals / game - Fajr Sepasi
Esteghlal Khuzestan is 20% better for: goals allowed per game.
1 goals / game - Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1.2 goals / game - Fajr Sepasi
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores in 55% of games (11 of 20 meczów), while Fajr Sepasi keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 meczów).
Fajr Sepasi scores in 80% of games (16 of 20 meczów), while Esteghlal Khuzestan keeps a clean sheet in 35% (7 of 20 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Esteghlal Khuzestan
Over / Under - Fajr Sepasi
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Esteghlal Khuzestan - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 25%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Fajr Sepasi - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 20% of games and wins 35%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Fajr Sepasi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Persian Gulf Pro League).
Teams vs league
| Esteghlal Khuzestan | Liga | Fajr Sepasi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 1.70 | 1.75 | ▲ 2.35 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 37% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 20% | 27% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 35% | 42% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 53% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 60% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Record from Esteghlal Khuzestan's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Fajr Sepasi. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi?
The Persian Gulf Pro League match finished Esteghlal Khuzestan 1:0 Fajr Sepasi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi?
Esteghlal Khuzestan score 0.70 goals per game on average and Fajr Sepasi 1.15. The Persian Gulf Pro League average is 1.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Esteghlal Khuzestan's matches and 60% of Fajr Sepasi's.
What form are Esteghlal Khuzestan and Fajr Sepasi in?
Over the last 5 games Esteghlal Khuzestan have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Fajr Sepasi 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.