Iran - Persian Gulf Pro LeagueData current as of September 13, 2026

Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi: match statistics

Esteghlal crest
Esteghlal
2 : 1half-time 1:1
Fajr Sepasi crest
Fajr Sepasi
155%(1.46)
X30%(3.56)
215%(7.02)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Won
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.61.69
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favorable long term.-19.70%

Esteghlal presents solid home form with a 50% win rate and only 10% losses at their own stadium, making them the favorite for this encounter. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per home match with just one goal conceded, and their goal difference (+5) is decidedly positive. Fajr Sepasi has poor away results with only 18% wins and a significant 36% loss rate, additionally failing to score in 36% of away matches. xG statistics point to an advantage for the visitors in defense (xG Against 1.52 vs 0.87 for the hosts), but Fajr Sepasi's low xG For (0.76) in away matches suggests problems creating scoring chances. Given Esteghlal's home advantage and the visitors' weak away efficiency, a home win is the most likely result, though Fajr Sepasi's solid draw form (45% away draws) does not rule out a split of points.

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Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

Esteghlal played against Fajr Sepasi in Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran). The game was played on February 27, 2026. Final score: 2:1.

Recent form

Esteghlal has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Fajr Sepasi has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 1.80 points per game.

Scoring records

Esteghlal scores 1.19 goals per game and allows 0.76. Fajr Sepasi scores 1.09 and allows 1.14. Games in this league average 1.79 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 43% of Esteghlal's games and 55% of Fajr Sepasi's. The Over 2.5 rates are 29% and 45%, compared with league averages of 38% for BTTS and 27% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Esteghlal has the higher season xG average, 1.30 to 0.76 per game. Esteghlal takes 2.7 shots per game, while Fajr Sepasi takes 0.5.

First-half and second-half trends

Esteghlal leads at halftime in 33% of its games and scores 0.57 goals per game after halftime. Fajr Sepasi leads at halftime in 18% and scores 0.68 after halftime.

When the teams score

Esteghlal's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). For Fajr Sepasi, it is minutes 76-90+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Persian Gulf Pro League games average 1.79 goals. Both teams score in 38% of games, and 27% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Esteghlal presents solid home form with a 50% win rate and only 10% losses at their own stadium, making them the favorite for this encounter. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per home match with just one goal conceded, and their goal difference (+5) is decidedly positive. Fajr Sepasi has poor away results with only 18% wins and a significant 36% loss rate, additionally failing to score in 36% of away matches. xG statistics point to an advantage for the visitors in defense (xG Against 1.52 vs 0.87 for the hosts), but Fajr Sepasi's low xG For (0.76) in away matches suggests problems creating scoring chances. Given Esteghlal's home advantage and the visitors' weak away efficiency, a home win is the most likely result, though Fajr Sepasi's solid draw form (45% away draws) does not rule out a split of points.

View the statistical overview

Stats by half

1 : 1
First half
1 : 0
Second half

Game stats

-1Possession (%)-1
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
-1Shots-1
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
-1Shots on target-1
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0xG0
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
-1Corners-1
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0Dangerous attacks0
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
-1Fouls-1
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0Cards2
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

1.71Points per gamePPG - points per game.1.36
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
1.19Goals scored / game1.09
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.76Goals allowed / game1.14
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
1.3xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.0.76
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
15%Average possession10%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.48Shots on target / game-0.36
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
43%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.27%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
43%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.55%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

2.71Shots per game0.5
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.48Shots on target-0.36
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
43.9%Shot conversion218.2%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
15%Possession10%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
1.3xG for0.76
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.94xG against1.52
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

Shooting quality

Esteghlal: Counter-attackingFajr Sepasi: Counter-attacking
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
Accuracy (shots on target)18%-72%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.481.52
Finishing (goals per shot on target)2.480.00

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

Esteghlal is 11% better for: last-5 form.

2 pts / game - Esteghlal · 1.8 pts / game - Fajr Sepasi

Esteghlal
DWLWW
Season result split
43% W43% D14% L
Season (W-D-L)
9-9-3
1.71 pts / game · goal difference +9
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-1-1
2.00 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
5-4-1
Last 5 at home
2-2-1
DLDWW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.0Goals conceded: 0.6xG: 0.00Opponent xG: 0.00BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 20%
Fajr Sepasi
WLWLW
Season result split
36% W27% D36% L
Season (W-D-L)
8-6-8
1.36 pts / game · goal difference -1
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-0-2
1.80 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
2-5-4
Last 5 away
1-0-4
LWLLL
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.2Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 0.00Opponent xG: 0.00BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Esteghlal is 9% better for: goals scored per game.

1.19 goals / game - Esteghlal · 1.09 goals / game - Fajr Sepasi

Esteghlal is 50% better for: goals allowed per game.

0.76 goals / game - Esteghlal · 1.14 goals / game - Fajr Sepasi

Esteghlal scoring profile: strong

Esteghlal scores in 71% of games (15 of 21 meczów), while Fajr Sepasi keeps a clean sheet in 27% (6 of 22 meczów).

Fajr Sepasi scoring profile: strong

Fajr Sepasi scores in 77% of games (17 of 22 meczów), while Esteghlal keeps a clean sheet in 43% (9 of 21 meczów).

25Goals scored (season)24
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
16Goals conceded (season)25
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
1.95Average goals per game2.23
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
5Goals scored (last 5)6
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
3Goals conceded (last 5)5
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
Esteghlal
43%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.9 of 21 meczów
29%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.6 of 21 meczów
Fajr Sepasi
27%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.6 of 22 meczów
23%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.5 of 22 meczów

How often they score at least...

71%1 goal77%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
29%2 goals23%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
19%3 goals5%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0%4 goals5%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

How often they concede at least...

57%1 goal73%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
14%2 goals36%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
5%3 goals5%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0%4 goals0%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

43%
Esteghlal - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.9 of 21 meczów
55%
Fajr Sepasi - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.12 of 22 meczów
38%
League average

Goal patterns

19%BTTS at half-time14%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
5%BTTS in both halves0%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
29%Scored in both halves18%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

BTTS and goal count

24%Min. 3 goals and BTTS36%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
5%Min. 3 goals without BTTS9%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
20%BTTS - last 560%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

Full game - team comparison (Over)

86%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.95%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
48%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.73%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
29%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.45%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
19%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.9%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
10%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.0%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

Over / Under - Esteghlal

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 86%Under 14%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 48%Under 52%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 29%Under 71%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 19%Under 81%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 10%Under 90%

Over / Under - Fajr Sepasi

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 95%Under 5%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 73%Under 27%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 45%Under 55%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 9%Under 91%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 0%Under 100%

1st half

62%Min. 1 goal before half-time45%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
29%Min. 2 goals before half-time27%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
5%Min. 3 goals before half-time9%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

2nd half

57%Min. 1 goal after half-time95%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
29%Min. 2 goals after half-time32%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
5%Min. 3 goals after half-time14%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Esteghlal is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.52 pts / game - Esteghlal · 1.18 pts / game - Fajr Sepasi

Esteghlal - half-time state
33% leading52% draw14% trailing
Fajr Sepasi - half-time state
18% leading64% draw18% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.52Points per game (1st half)1.18
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.62Goals scored (1st half)0.41
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.38Goals conceded (1st half)0.41
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
1Average goals (1st half)0.82
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
71%Clean sheet before half-time73%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
48%No goal before half-time68%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

After half-time (2nd half)

1.38Points per game (2nd half)1.59
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.57Goals scored (2nd half)0.68
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.38Goals conceded (2nd half)0.73
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
0.95Average goals (2nd half)1.41
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
67%Clean sheet after half-time50%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi
52%No goal after half-time36%
EsteghlalFajr Sepasi

Esteghlal - second-half results

24% W67% D10% L
32
Half-time points
13
Half-time goals
+5
Goal difference (1st half)
29
Second-half points
+4
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.52
PPG before half-time
Lead holding130%

Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 43%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime0.0

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Fajr Sepasi - second-half results

50% W9% D41% L
26
Half-time points
9
Half-time goals
0
Goal difference (1st half)
35
Second-half points
-1
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.18
PPG before half-time
Lead holding200%

Leads at halftime in 18% of games and wins 36%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.3

Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Esteghlal - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.801.20
Goals scored / game0.40.6
Goals allowed / game0.00.6
Average goals per game0.41.2
1 goal40%60%
2 goals0%20%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet100%60%
No goal60%60%
Goal difference+20
Half-time: 40% leading - 60% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 60% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 2
Fajr Sepasi - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game0.802.40
Goals scored / game0.21.0
Goals allowed / game0.60.4
Average goals per game0.81.4
1 goal40%100%
2 goals40%20%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet60%60%
No goal80%20%
Goal difference-2+3
Half-time: 0% leading - 80% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 80% won - 0% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 1

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

Esteghlal
ScoredConceded
4
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
2
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.

Fajr Sepasi
ScoredConceded
3
1
0-15
0
4
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
5
5
61-75
7
7
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.09
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
1.2 : 0.9
Estimated goal split
home : away
117%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
49%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+44%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
55%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
7%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 14 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

Esteghlal

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.36
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.07
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-8.7 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.11
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.18
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
119%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
96%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.29
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.1
Late goals
20% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 16% come in the first quarter-hour.
20%

Fajr Sepasi

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.76
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.71
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-1.7 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.33
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.38
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
138%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
114%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.44
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.3
Late goals
29% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 13% come in the first quarter-hour.
29%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Persian Gulf Pro League).

Teams vs league

EsteghlalLigaFajr Sepasi
Average goals per game▲ 1.951.79▲ 2.23
Both teams scored▲ 43%38%▲ 55%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 29%27%▲ 45%
Clean sheets▲ 43%41%▼ 27%
Goal before half-time▲ 62%54%▼ 45%
Goal after half-time▼ 57%62%▲ 95%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

1.79
Average goals per game
38%
Both teams scored
27%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
41%
Clean sheets
1.00
Home goals / game
0.79
Away goals / game
+27%
Home attack advantage
+21%
Home defensive advantage
+14%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
54%
1 goal
18%
2 goals
5%
3 goals
2%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
62%
1 goal
24%
2 goals
9%
3 goals
4%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. EsteghlalGoalSaeid Saharkhizan GendishminAssist: Jasir Asani
  2. Fajr SepasiGoalMehdi Sharifi
  3. Fajr SepasiSubstitutionOn: Masoud RigiOff: Meysam Moradi
  4. Fajr SepasiYellow cardYadegar Rostami
  5. EsteghlalGoalRouzbeh CheshmiAssist: Saleh Hardani
  6. Fajr SepasiSubstitutionOn: Shervin BozorgOff: Mohammad Zobeir Niknafas
  7. EsteghlalSubstitutionOn: Abolfazl ZamaniOff: Munir El Haddadi Mohamed
  8. Fajr SepasiYellow cardShervin Bozorg

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeHassan Akrami

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Hassan AkramiMatches officiated: 12
4.17Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 250%Home wins25%Draws25%Away wins

Head-to-head

Record from Esteghlal's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Fajr Sepasi. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.

Fajr Sepasi
0 : 3
Esteghlal

FAQ

What was the result of Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi?

The Persian Gulf Pro League match finished Esteghlal 2:1 Fajr Sepasi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi?

Esteghlal score 1.19 goals per game on average and Fajr Sepasi 1.09. The Persian Gulf Pro League average is 1.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Esteghlal's matches and 55% of Fajr Sepasi's.

What form are Esteghlal and Fajr Sepasi in?

Over the last 5 games Esteghlal have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Fajr Sepasi 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi?

The statistical background for Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.