Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP: match statistics

Sporting CP are showing clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 2.8 goals per game during that run, finding the net 14 times in total. Estrela Amadora have failed to win any of their last five matches, recording 3 defeats and 2 draws, while managing just 5 goals. The defensive difference is equally clear, with the hosts conceding 8 goals during this period compared with Sporting’s 4. The visitors have scored an average of 1.8 more goals per match and have a significantly higher points tally from the last five league rounds: 2.4 compared with 0.4. Given this advantage in attacking efficiency and their more stable defense, a Sporting CP victory is the most likely outcome.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches, representing a 60% rate, but Sporting CP’s defensive profile clearly reduces Estrela’s chances of scoring. During this period, the visitors conceded an average of just 0.8 goals, allowed opponents an xG of 0.80, and maintained a favourable 14:4 goal difference. Estrela scored only 1.0 goal per match with an xG of 0.98, while also failing to win any of their last five matches. Sporting averaged 2.8 goals and produced an xG of 2.09, making a Sporting win the most likely outcome, potentially with the hosts failing to score. Therefore, the BTTS - No option, meaning that at least one team will not score, has stronger foundations than BTTS - Yes.

Sporting CP are in excellent offensive form: they have scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.8 per game, while Estrela Amadora have conceded 8 goals during this period. The difference in quality is confirmed by xG: the visitors created an average of 2.09 expected goals, whereas the hosts allowed their opponents 1.50 xG. Matches with Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of Sporting’s last 5 games and in 3 of Estrela’s last 5, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Estrela scored just 1.0 goal per game with an xG of 0.98, making their contribution less certain, but the visitors’ attacking strength provides the clearest edge for Over 1.5.

Sporting CP have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Estrela Amadora have failed to win any of their five games and scored only 1.0 goal per match. The visitors were leading at the break in 60% of those matches, with a first-half record of 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded; Estrela, meanwhile, recorded a negative first-half goal difference of -1. Sporting’s advantage is even more pronounced after the interval, as they averaged 1.8 goals, won the second half in 80% of cases and did not lose any of them. The hosts scored only 0.4 goals on average after half-time and failed to score in 60% of their recent matches, making a Sporting lead at the break followed by a full-time victory the most likely scenario in the HT/FT market.