Etar vs Ludogorets II: match statistics

Etar is the match favorite as they generate an average xG of 1.78 at home and score 1.67 goals per game, while Ludogorets II have an away xG of 1.14 and only 0.53 goals per game. The hosts average 8.47 shots on target and 13.93 shots overall at home, compared to the visitors’ just 3.8 shots on target and 9 shots overall away, which translates into higher-quality chances for Etar. Although Ludogorets II are on a better run (3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5, 9–4 in goals and 2.2 points per game), their away efficiency is poor (conversion rate 6% and 60% of away matches without scoring). Additionally, Etar have a stronger home defense (conceding 1.13 goals per game and xGA 1.17) and a positive home goal difference (+8), whereas the visitors have an away goal difference of -12. Taking this into account, I predict a home win with approximately 60% probability, a draw 25% and an away win 15%.

Etar at home has a seasonal BTTS rate of 80% and keeps a clean sheet in only 7% of matches; additionally they score on average 2.0 goals per game (xG 1.82) and register 8.33 shots on target, indicating strong offensive capabilities and frequent concessions. Ludogorets II away have a low goals average of 0.53 and a seasonal BTTS of just 27%, however in the last 5 matches their BTTS has risen to 60% and they have scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) with the most recent xG_for 1.56, so their form can respond. Etar concedes 1.4 goals on average this season (6 conceded in the last 5 = 1.2), and Ludogorets II concede 1.33 (4 conceded in the last 5 = 0.8), so both teams have a tendency to concede. Additionally the hosts’ shot conversion 14% vs the visitors’ 6% and the xG comparison (Etar xG_for 1.82 vs Ludogorets xG_against 1.52) indicate Etar will create chances and the opponent has realistic prospects of at least one goal; therefore BTTS - Yes appears the stronger scenario (75% vs 25%).

Based on xG and defensive statistics I project a total of approximately 2.89 goals: Etar 1.67 and Ludogorets II 1.22 (calculated as the average of attacking xG and opponent defensive xG: (1.82+1.52)/2 and (1.14+1.29)/2). Etar scores 2.0 goals per game on average and records 8.33 shots on target with a 14% conversion rate, while Ludogorets II averages 0.53 goals, has 3.8 shots on target and a 6% conversion, which gives a clear offensive edge to the home side. Additionally, Etar has 87% of home matches with over 1.5 goals and 67% with over 2.5 goals, whereas Ludogorets II away has 53% and 33% respectively, reinforcing the expectation of at least two goals in the match. The probability distribution for a total of 2.89 yields about 78% chance for Over 1.5, 55% for Over 2.5 and 33% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5. I recommend betting Over 1.5 given the 78% probability, Etar’s shooting superiority (8.33 shots on target and 14% conversion) and the fact that in 80% of their home games both teams scored.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Etar were level at the break in 7 of 15 matches this season (47%) and led at half-time in 4 of 15 (27%), with an average of 1.07 first-half goals versus 0.27 for Ludogorets II. The home side have a clear offensive edge this season: on average 2.00 goals per match versus 0.53 for the visitors, xG 1.82 versus 1.14, 8.33 shots on target versus 3.8 and shot conversion 14% versus 6%. After the break Etar score on average 0.93 and concede 0.53, while the visitors score 0.27 and concede 0.8; Etar also register an average of 1.6 points after half-time versus 0.73 for the visitors, indicating a real chance of a turnaround from the draw. It should be noted, however, that in the last five matches Ludogorets II led at the break in 60% of cases and scored on average 1.4 first-half goals, which represents a moderate upset risk.