Etincelles vs Bugesera: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a very even match between two teams in poor form. Etincelles have not won any match at home this season (0% wins), and in the last 5 matches, they earned just 0.2 points per match. Bugesera has also not won any away match (0% wins) but has slightly better form in the last 5 games (1.4 PPG). Both teams have an identical goal difference at their respective venues (-5), similar average shots on target (3.17), and ball possession (around 50-51%). A key factor is the high percentage of draws for both squads – Etincelles 50% at home, Bugesera 50% away. Given the poor efficiency of both teams and their tendency to draw, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
Etincelles vs Bugesera: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Etincelles played against Bugesera in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The game was played on January 11, 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Recent form
Etincelles has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.20 points per game. Bugesera has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Etincelles scores 0.69 goals per game and allows 1.25. Bugesera scores 0.75 and allows 1.00. Games in this league average 1.98 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 56% of Etincelles's games and 44% of Bugesera's. The Over 2.5 rates are 25% and 38%, compared with league averages of 40% for BTTS and 32% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Etincelles has the higher season xG average, 1.14 to 0.95 per game. Etincelles takes 6.3 shots per game, while Bugesera takes 5.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Etincelles leads at halftime in 13% of its games and scores 0.38 goals per game after halftime. Bugesera leads at halftime in 6% and scores 0.56 after halftime.
When the teams score
Etincelles's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (3 goals). For Bugesera, it is minutes 76-90+ (4 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
National Soccer League games average 1.98 goals. Both teams score in 40% of games, and 32% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a very even match between two teams in poor form. Etincelles have not won any match at home this season (0% wins), and in the last 5 matches, they earned just 0.2 points per match. Bugesera has also not won any away match (0% wins) but has slightly better form in the last 5 games (1.4 PPG). Both teams have an identical goal difference at their respective venues (-5), similar average shots on target (3.17), and ball possession (around 50-51%). A key factor is the high percentage of draws for both squads – Etincelles 50% at home, Bugesera 50% away. Given the poor efficiency of both teams and their tendency to draw, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Etincelles | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Bugesera is 600% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / game - Etincelles · 1.4 pts / game - Bugesera
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bugesera is 9% better for: goals scored per game.
0.69 goals / game - Etincelles · 0.75 goals / game - Bugesera
Bugesera is 25% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.25 goals / game - Etincelles · 1 goals / game - Bugesera
Etincelles scores in 56% of games (9 of 16 meczów), while Bugesera keeps a clean sheet in 44% (7 of 16 meczów).
Bugesera scores in 63% of games (10 of 16 meczów), while Etincelles keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Etincelles
Over / Under - Bugesera
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Etincelles is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.88 pts / game - Etincelles · 0.75 pts / game - Bugesera
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Etincelles - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 13% of games and wins 6%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Bugesera - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 6% of games and wins 25%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Etincelles
Bugesera
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Etincelles | Liga | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 1.94 | 1.98 | ▼ 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 40% | ▲ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 32% | ▲ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 37% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 67% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- BugeseraGoalDaniel Barnabas
FAQ
What was the result of Etincelles vs Bugesera?
The National Soccer League match finished Etincelles 1:2 Bugesera. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Etincelles vs Bugesera?
Etincelles score 0.69 goals per game on average and Bugesera 0.75. The National Soccer League average is 1.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Etincelles's matches and 44% of Bugesera's.
What form are Etincelles and Bugesera in?
Over the last 5 games Etincelles have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Bugesera 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Etincelles vs Bugesera?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Etincelles vs Bugesera: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.