Everton vs Palestino: match statistics

Everton shows better form over the last five matches — 3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 points per game, compared to Palestino (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss and 1.6 points per game). The hosts average 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per match, while Palestino on the road scores 1.00 goal but concedes 2.17 per match; additionally the visitors have a negative away goal difference of -7. Everton has a higher xG (1.41) than Palestino away (1.20) and attempts slightly more shots (12.71 vs 11.17) and more shots on target (3.71 vs 3.5), indicating better chance-creation control. Although Palestino have higher shot conversion (9% vs 6%) and less frequently finish matches without scoring (17% of matches without a goal vs 57% for Everton), their poor away defense (only 17% clean sheets) gives Everton the edge. Therefore I expect Everton to use home advantage and win this match.

BTTS - Yes appears more likely. Palestino has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% versus Everton’s 50%, and both teams show 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches. Palestino concedes an average of 2.17 goals away, increasing Everton’s chances to score (Everton averages 1.88 goals at home with xG 1.67). At the same time Palestino averages 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches with last5 xG 1.61, and its seasonal clean sheet rate is only 17% (Everton 38%), so Palestino frequently fails to keep clean sheets. Differences in shots and efficiency also support BTTS: Everton averages 5.75 shots on target versus Palestino’s 3.5 and has a higher conversion (11% vs 9%), which—combined with seasonal goal averages 1.88 vs 1.0 and the other metrics—gives a strong signal for the 'Yes' scenario (I assign it 70%).

Based on xG: Everton has xG_for = 1.67, Palestino xG_against = 1.61, yielding expected Everton goals ≈ 1.64; Palestino xG_for = 1.20 versus Everton xG_against = 1.10 gives ≈ 1.15, total ≈ 2.79. This aligns with seasonal figures: Everton scores 1.88 goals on average with 17.5 shots and 5.75 on target (conversion 11%), while Palestino averages 1.00 goals, concedes 2.17 and has only 11.17 shots with 3.5 on target (conversion 9%). A Poisson model with λ=2.79 gives probabilities Over 1.5 ≈ 77%, Over 2.5 ≈ 53% and Over 3.5 ≈ 31%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (77% vs 23%). Additionally, Palestino has 67% of matches seasonally over 2.5 goals and only 17% clean sheets, while Everton has 38% clean sheets and 50% of matches with over 1.5 goals, which together increase the likelihood of at least two goals. Therefore I recommend playing the over at line 1.5: high combined xG (2.79), Everton’s shot dominance and Palestino’s weak defense support a minimum of two goals in the match.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Everton win at full-time (X/1). Everton holds a clear advantage: they score an average of 1.88 goals per match versus Palestino’s 1.00 and post a higher xG (1.67 vs 1.20), while conceding only 0.88 goals on average compared to the opponent’s 2.17. At half-time the hosts led in 3 matches (38%) and were level in 4 (50%), with 75% clean sheets at the break, whereas Palestino have 83% of away matches featuring at least one goal by half-time. The decisive figures are from second halves: Everton scores an average of 1.13 goals after the break and has accrued 15 points in second halves (an average of 1.88 points per match in the second half), while Palestino have only 0.17 goals and 3 points after the break, which strongly supports a turnaround in favor of the hosts.