Excelsior vs Groningen: match statistics

Excelsior are slight favorites: they have picked up 8 points in their last five matches, compared with Groningen’s 5. The hosts have conceded 7 goals in that period, while the visitors have let in 11, pointing to a clear difference in defensive performance. Away from home, Groningen concede an average of 2.33 goals, with opponents recording an xG of 2.17, so Excelsior should have opportunities to score. The visitors remain dangerous going forward, however, averaging 2 goals away from home compared with Excelsior’s 1.33 at home, although both teams create chances with the same average xG of 1.26. Groningen’s weaker defense tips the prediction in the hosts’ favor, but Excelsior’s 2 defeats in 3 home matches mean this is not a confident pick.

BTTS landed in 75% of Excelsior’s home matches and 100% of Groningen’s away matches, with both teams scoring in every match in those samples. Excelsior average 2.25 goals at home, while Groningen concede 2.33 on the road, strongly supporting a goal for the hosts. The visitors also have good reason to score: they average 2.00 goals away from home, while Excelsior concede 1.50 at home. In the last 5 matches for both teams, BTTS landed in 80% of cases, with Excelsior conceding an average of 1.4 goals and Groningen 2.2. Therefore, a scenario in which both teams score is clearly more likely than BTTS - No, which means at least one team fails to score.

Excelsior average 2.25 goals scored, while Groningen concede 2.33, giving the hosts a strong platform to score multiple times. The visitors average 2.00 goals scored, while the hosts concede 1.50; additionally, both teams have scored in every match they have played so far. Excelsior’s last five matches averaged 3.4 goals, while Groningen’s averaged 4.0; Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% and 80% of those matches, respectively. Although the 3.90-goal projection also points towards higher lines, Over 1.5 has the strongest statistical backing: every match played by either team so far has featured at least two goals.

Excelsior has the stronger case for victory: they average 2.25 goals compared with Groningen’s 2.00, while their xG stands at 1.96 against their opponents’ 1.26. A home lead at the break is a realistic possibility, as Excelsior led at half-time in 2 of their 4 home matches and conceded an average of 0.6 goals before the break across their last five games, compared with Groningen’s 1.4. However, the visitors led at the break in 2 of their 3 away matches, so the possibility of them gaining an early advantage should also be considered. The second half supports Excelsior either preserving or establishing a lead: Groningen concede an average of 1.33 goals after the break and lost the second half in 2 of their 3 away matches, while the hosts have not lost the second half in any of their 4 home games. The strongest individual HT/FT scenario therefore remains Excelsior leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes.