Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor: match statistics

Alanyaspor sit 4th, remain unbeaten after two rounds, and have collected 8 points from their last five matches, while Eyüpspor have managed just 5 points over the same period. However, the hosts are clearly inefficient at home: despite 56% possession and an average of 12 shots, they have failed to score, registering only one shot on target per match. Alanyaspor score an average of one goal away from home, have not been held scoreless, and drew the only such match, but their average xG is just 1.06. Eyüpspor create slightly better chances at home, with an average xG of 1.26 compared with the visitors’ 1.42 xG conceded, yet their 100% rate of matches without scoring limits their chances of ending that run. Both defenses concede an average of one goal per match, making a closely fought draw the most likely outcome.

BTTS - No is the preferred pick, with a slight edge, as the league frequency of both teams scoring stands at just 39%, while clean sheets occur in 61% of matches. Eyüpspor recorded BTTS in 40% of their last 5 matches, compared with 60% for Alanyaspor, pointing to a mixed rather than clearly goal-friendly signal. Both teams create chances of moderate offensive quality: their average xG across the last five appearances is 0.99 for the hosts and 1.22 for the visitors. Alanyaspor conceded just 0.8 goals per match during this period, giving them a solid basis to restrict the hosts, who average 3 shots on target. Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, making the outcome in which at least one side fails to score more likely.

The model expects a total of 2.40 goals, with a projection of 1.25 for Eyüpspor and 1.15 for Alanyaspor, which clearly points to a result below the 3.5 line. In their last five matches, Eyüpspor averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Alanyaspor scored 1.2 and conceded just 0.8 goals per game. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 in only 40% of their last five appearances, while the league average stands at 2.5 goals, with 39% of matches featuring at least three goals. Although the xG against Eyüpspor is 1.83 and against Alanyaspor 1.43, the attacking xG figures for both teams remain moderate at 0.99 and 1.22, respectively. Under 3.5 has the edge because it would take at least four goals to lose this bet—something neither the current scoring rate nor the distribution of recent results suggests.

Eyüpspor have averaged more goals scored across their last five matches—1.6 compared with Alanyaspor’s 1.2—and also benefit from home advantage, having taken all 3 points in their previous home meeting. The hosts led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2, while Alanyaspor averaged 0.8 goals in this period. However, Alanyaspor are difficult to beat, having lost only once in their last five appearances and drawn 40% of them, so the possibility of a turnaround after the break remains significant. The 1/1 scenario is also supported by their previous second-half profile: Eyüpspor averaged 1 goal in the second half and conceded none, whereas the visitors failed to score and conceded an average of 1 goal. The difference in the quality of chances created is marginal, with xG standing at 1.03 for the hosts and 1.06 for the visitors, but Eyüpspor’s stronger first-half performance and home advantage slightly reinforce the outcome of a home lead at the break followed by a home win.