FA Šiauliai vs Žalgiris: match statistics

I project a victory for Žalgiris (2), because the visitors have a form of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, translating to an average of 2.0 points per game versus the hosts' 0.6 points per game. Both teams scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches, but Šiauliai conceded as many as 13 goals (2.6 per game) while Žalgiris conceded 5 goals (1.0 per game), which strongly favors the visitors. On the season level Žalgiris has a superior goal record of 27 scored to 23 conceded, whereas the hosts have 21 scored and 35 conceded; in home matches Šiauliai concedes on average 2.0 goals per game, while Žalgiris concedes 0.7 goals on the road. In terms of chance quality the visitors generate an average xG of 1.54 away versus the hosts' 1.29 xG at home, and additionally Žalgiris attempts more shots (13.9 vs 10.25) and maintains higher possession (57% vs 50%). Neither side has high finishing efficiency (hosts 10% conversion, visitors 6%), therefore I assess probabilities at approximately 55% for the visitors, 25% for a draw and 20% for the hosts.

FA Šiauliai has BTTS in 70% of matches this season and BTTS in 100% of last 5 games, scoring on average 1.9 and conceding 1.6; Žalgiris has BTTS in only 20% of matches (last 5: 20%), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.7 on the season. Šiauliai fail to score in only 10% of matches (i.e., score in 90%), Žalgiris fail to score in 50% of matches (i.e., score in 50%), which under a simple independence estimate yields roughly a 45% probability of BTTS. Additionally, Žalgiris keep a clean sheet in 60% of matches and have conceded 1.0 goals on average in the last 5, while Šiauliai have conceded as many as 2.6 goals in their last 5; this indicates the visitors are defensively stable while the home side has recently been vulnerable to goals. On the other hand, both teams’ xG are practically identical (1.55 vs 1.54) and both averaged 1.4 goals in the last 5 matches, however Žalgiris’s shot conversion is only 6% versus Šiauliai’s 14%, which limits the visitors’ realistic scoring chance. Considering Žalgiris’s seasonal 50% of matches without a goal and the visitors’ 60% clean sheets as stronger signals against BTTS, I predict No (No Goal) with 55% vs 45% for Yes (BTTS - Yes).

I expect a total of about 3.09 goals (expected_goals_home 1.55, expected_goals_away 1.54), which on an xG level clearly points to an Over 2.5 goals match. FA Šiauliai have 80% of their season matches Over 2.5 and 100% Over 2.5 in the last 5, while Žalgiris have 30% season Over 2.5 (last 5: 60%), so the Over 2.5 edge comes mainly from the home side. The hosts average 13.7 shots and 4.4 on target with a 14% conversion rate, and the visitors 13.9 shots with a 6% conversion — despite Žalgiris’ lower efficiency, the combined xG 3.09 indicates real goal potential. Additionally, the hosts’ BTTS rate is 70% and the Over2.5+BTTS combination for Šiauliai is 60%, therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (Over 1.5 is very likely, Over 3.5 has considerably lower chances).

Šiauliai have the advantage at Half-Time: they lead in 40% of home matches and score an average of 1.1 goals by the break versus Žalgiris’s 0.4. Despite similar xG (1.55 vs 1.54), the hosts convert far better (14% vs 6%) and register more shots on target (4.4 vs 3.5), which increases the likelihood of taking and holding a lead at the break. Žalgiris are in better form (last 5 matches: 60% wins and 40% leads at Half-Time), so there is a risk of a turnaround after the break; nevertheless Šiauliai score on average 0.8 goals in the second half and have 90% of matches with at least one goal after Half-Time. Overall the data give the strongest signal for a Half-Time/Full-Time 1/1 (lead at the break and home win) ~28%, with meaningful alternatives: Half-Time/Full-Time X/X (draw/draw) ~12% and 2/2 (away lead at the break and away win) ~18% due to Žalgiris’s good form.